Milled rice and broken rice market in Guatemala

Earlier Report Observations

The Guatemalan milled rice market expanded significantly from 2018 to 2020, with production rising from 86.7 thousand tons to 144.3 thousand tons. This growth was driven by the national genetic improvement program launched by the Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology (ICTA), which developed higher-yielding and disease-resistant rice varieties, boosting productivity. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic increased demand for staple foods and disrupted supply chains, leading to a peak in imports. The government's Strategic Grain Reserves Program further supported market volume by securing supplies and containing price volatility.

Market volume contracted sharply in 2021 to 104.4 thousand tons as production fell by nearly 40%. This decline was primarily due to uncertainty among domestic producers caused by ongoing negotiations to eliminate tariffs under the DR-CAFTA trade agreement and persistent subsidies for U.S. rice farmers, which eroded Guatemalan competitiveness. Recovery followed in 2022, with production rebounding to 141.2 thousand tons, encouraged by high grain prices and the strengthening of the Strategic Grain Reserves Program to mitigate supply risks.

Production decreased again in 2023 to 117.4 thousand tons, reflecting ongoing challenges such as adverse weather conditions linked to the La Niña phenomenon and structural competitiveness issues against subsidized imports. Efforts to expand cultivation areas in coastal and eastern regions, along with continued genetic improvement programs, aimed to stabilize output, but market volumes remained volatile due to these persistent factors.

Production milled rice and broken rice in Guatemala

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milled rice and broken rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of milled rice and broken rice, 2017-2020

Guatemala's production of milled rice and broken rice has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 144.3 thousand tons, which represents a significant 32.8% increase compared to 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production surged by 69.8%, with an average annual growth rate of 19.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Guatemala's production value of milled rice and broken rice has risen for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 142.1 million US dollars, up 37.7% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value more than doubled, increasing by 104.1% with a compound annual growth rate of 26.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 68.5 million US dollars, which saw a slight decline of 1.6%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the largest increase of 50.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Guatemala in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports milled rice and broken rice from Guatemala

Exports in kind, t

The export market showed an unstable trend during this period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2019 at 352 tons and peaked in 2018 at 784 tons, resulting in a 2.2-fold difference between these years. In 2020, milled rice and broken rice exports from Guatemala totaled 655 tons, marking a substantial 86.4% increase compared to 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 55.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the main destinations for Guatemala's milled rice and broken rice exports in volume terms were El Salvador (29.6% of exports), Costa Rica (24.8%), and the United States (23.2%). Together, these three countries accounted for 77.6% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The export market in value terms displayed volatility over the observed period. Exports hit their lowest point in 2019 at 334 thousand US dollars and reached their maximum in 2020 at 645 thousand US dollars, showing a 1.9-fold difference. In 2020, exports saw a sharp improvement of 93.1% compared to the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, with a decrease of 46.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Guatemala in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the United States (34.4% of exports in value terms), El Salvador (25.4%), and Costa Rica (21.6%) were the primary markets for Guatemala's milled rice and broken rice exports. Collectively, they represented 81.4% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Guatemala in value, 2017-2020

Imports milled rice and broken rice to Guatemala

Imports in kind, t

The import market in volume terms exhibited volatility during this timeframe. Imports were at their lowest in 2018 with 15 649 tons and peaked in 2020 at 32 962 tons, resulting in a 2.1-fold variation. In 2020, imports increased by 86.0% compared to the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2018, with a drop of 14.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, three key markets—Costa Rica, Brazil, and the United States—together accounted for 53.5% of Guatemala's total imports of milled rice and broken rice in volume terms.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The import market in value terms showed an unstable trend throughout the period. Imports reached their lowest volume in 2018 at 8 233 thousand US dollars and peaked in 2020 at 17 558 thousand US dollars, with a top-to-bottom ratio of 2.1 times. In 2020, imports reflected an uptick of 85.6% over the past year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, with a decrease of 6.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Guatemala in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, the United States (18.8% of imports in value terms), Brazil (17.7%), and Paraguay (13.9%) remained the leading destinations in Guatemala's import structure for milled rice and broken rice. Together, they made up 50.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Guatemala in value, 2017-2020