Milk with fat content of >1% and ≤6% market in Lithuania

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2022, the Lithuanian market for milk with fat content >1% and ≤6% expanded in both volume and value terms. The abolition of EU milk quotas, fully implemented by 2015, continued to drive restructuring and efficiency improvements in the dairy sector, although domestic production remained relatively stable. Market size growth was primarily fueled by rising imports, which increased from 478.5 thousand tons in 2018 to 568.6 thousand tons in 2022, reflecting strong domestic demand. Concerns over market power concentration among a few large dairy processors persisted, potentially affecting raw milk pricing and supply dynamics.

After peaking in 2022 at 549.4 thousand tons, market volume declined in 2023 and 2024, coinciding with a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options such as organic and plant-based milk alternatives. This trend reduced demand for traditional milk within this fat segment. Meanwhile, the market value remained elevated, indicating sustained price levels. Import sources remained concentrated on neighboring countries like Latvia, Estonia, and Poland, ensuring steady supply despite volume contractions.

By 2025, Pieno Zvaigzdes AB maintained its leadership in the dairy sector, with value sales of dairy products showing modest growth. Pending EU regulatory updates on microbiological criteria and classification rules for milk products, expected from early 2026, may introduce new labeling and quality standards. Additionally, the introduction of an excise tax on sweetened drinks in 2026, which exempts natural sugars from milk, aims to promote healthier consumption patterns and could indirectly influence the dairy market.

Production milk with fat content of >1% and ≤6% in Lithuania

In value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Lithuania's production of milk with fat content between 1% and 6% increased for the second consecutive year. In 2021, the output was valued at 56 910 thousand US dollars, marking a 6.0% increase compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, production grew by 4.3%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 1.4%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 51 991 thousand US dollars, with the largest decline of 4.8% occurring that same year.

Annual dynamics of production in Lithuania in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

In kind, 2018-2021, t

In 2021, Lithuania produced 84 293 tonnes of milk with fat content between 1% and 6%, representing a slight decrease of 3.0% from the previous year. From 2018 to 2021, overall production declined by 3.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%. The largest increase was recorded in 2020 at 0.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021, t

Exports milk with fat content of >1% and ≤6% from Lithuania

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of contraction, Lithuania's exports of milk with fat content between 1% and 6% increased. In 2021, exports reached 102.8 thousand tonnes, up by 5.2% year-over-year. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 97.8 thousand tonnes, with the largest decline of 3.2% occurring that same year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Poland and Latvia consistently accounted for 98.0% of total exports in volume, highlighting a high degree of market concentration, with a long tail of smaller markets making up the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Lithuania's exports of milk with fat content between 1% and 6% increased for the second consecutive year. In 2021, exports were valued at 49.6 million US dollars, a 20.7% rise compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, exports grew by 21.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.6%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 40.4 million US dollars, with the largest decline of 1.3% occurring that same year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Lithuania in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Poland and Latvia consistently accounted for 97.5% of total exports in value, demonstrating a high level of concentration, while a long tail of smaller markets contributed the rest.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Lithuania in value, 2018-2021

Imports milk with fat content of >1% and ≤6% to Lithuania

Imports in kind, K t

Lithuania's imports of milk with fat content between 1% and 6% increased for the second consecutive year. In 2021, import volume stood at 526.4 thousand tonnes, up by 2.9% year-over-year. Between 2018 and 2021, imports rose by 10%, equating to an average annual growth rate of 3.2%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 478.5 thousand tonnes, with the largest decline of 0.0% occurring that year. The largest increase was recorded in 2020 at 6.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Latvia and Estonia played the leading roles in imports by volume, together accounting for 92.6% of total flows, with the remainder distributed among other destinations.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Lithuania's imports of milk with fat content between 1% and 6% increased for the second consecutive year. In 2021, imports totaled 223.9 million US dollars, reflecting a robust rise of 18.9% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, imports grew by 23.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 178.0 million US dollars, with the largest decline of 1.7% occurring that same year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Lithuania in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Latvia and Estonia continued to lead the list of markets for imports in value terms, together accounting for 90.2% of total flows, while other partners played a supplementary role.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Lithuania in value, 2018-2021