Milk market in Namibia

Earlier Report Observations

Namibia's milk market volume fell from 130.6 thousand metric tons in 2018 to 118.0 thousand metric tons in 2020, driven by a sustained drought that curtailed fodder production and elevated imported feed costs. These higher expenses made local milk less competitive against zero-VAT UHT imports from South Africa, prompting several dairy farmers to exit the sector. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further aggravated cash-flow constraints, delaying investments and compounding the decline.

A stabilization phase began in 2021 when the Livestock and Livestock Products Act was amended, formally placing dairy under a dedicated regulator and signaling enhanced sector oversight. This contributed to a slight market rebound to 119.8 thousand metric tons. In 2022, newly enforced regulations requiring import permits for each dairy consignment restricted foreign milk inflow, supporting a sharper recovery that pushed market volume to 132.9 thousand metric tons.

The market receded to 130.1 thousand metric tons in 2023 as persistent drought and feed costs—consuming about 71% of production expenses—limited herd expansion. Although consumer preferences shifted toward locally sourced, hormone-free milk, structural hurdles such as the VAT disparity between fresh and processed milk and the absence of infant-industry protection continued to curb growth. By 2024, only three active dairy farmers remained, underscoring the sector's fragility.

Production milk in Namibia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Namibia's milk production has declined for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 100.6 thousand tons of milk, which represents a 6.9% year-over-year decrease. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 10%, translating to an average annual decline of 3.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Namibia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports milk from Namibia

Exports in kind, t

The data shows irregular fluctuations, pointing to a volatile market environment. Export volumes reached their lowest point in 2018 at 5 tons, then surged to a peak of 581 tons in 2019, creating a top-to-bottom ratio of 114 times. In 2020, milk shipments from Namibia to abroad totaled 298 tons, down 48.7% from 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2018 at 99.1%, while the most significant increase was recorded in 2019 at 11,251.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Namibia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Zambia was the leading destination for Namibia's milk exports in kind, accounting for 87.5% of total flows, with the remainder distributed among other partners.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Namibia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Namibia's milk export value has declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 829 thousand US dollars, marking a sharp decrease of 44.6% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports dropped by 55.1%, which corresponds to an average annual decline of 23.4%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 2,719 thousand US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 45.0%, while the most significant increase was in 2018 at 47.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Namibia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Zambia remained the overwhelmingly dominant buyer of milk from Namibia in value terms, accounting for 94.6% of total exports.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Namibia in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Namibia

Imports in kind, t

Namibia imported approximately 17,743 tons of milk in 2020, an increase of 18.0% from the year before. From 2017 to 2020, imports rose by 6.4%, equating to an average annual growth rate of 2.1%. The lowest volume was recorded in 2019 at 15,033 tons, while the highest was in 2018 at 21,958 tons. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 31.5%, and the most significant increase was in 2018 at 31.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Namibia in kind, 2017-2020, t

Over the period 2017–2020, South Africa accounted for nearly all of Namibia's milk imports in kind, with a share of 92.8% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Namibia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Namibia's milk import value has declined for the third year in a row. In 2020, imports came to 17,588 thousand US dollars, representing a robust drop of 10.1% relative to the prior year. From 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 18.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of -6.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Namibia in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, South Africa remained the key source for milk imports to Namibia, accounting for 83.8% of total imports in value terms, while other destinations were much less significant.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Namibia in value, 2017-2020