Milk market in Nigeria

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, Nigeria's milk market volume grew from 637 thousand tons to 788 thousand tons, primarily driven by a sharp rise in imports. This increase occurred against a backdrop of recognized chronic supply shortages, where local production met less than 10% of demand, prompting government calls for strategic investment. The 2019 launch of the Dairy Transformation Plan under the Agricultural Transformation Agenda aimed to stimulate dairy infrastructure development, although its impact on total supply was initially limited.

Following the 2020 peak, the market volume contracted to 598 thousand tons by 2023. The decline was led by a drastic reduction in imports after the Central Bank of Nigeria's foreign-exchange restrictions and the federal government's import-ban policy for dairy products in 2022. Concurrent high food inflation, exceeding 23%, constrained consumer purchasing power. In response, private-sector backward-integration initiatives expanded, such as Outspan Nigeria's new milk-collection centers, and the 2023 launch of the National Dairy Policy (2023-2028) provided a roadmap for sector development and attracting investments like Arla Nigeria's large-scale farm project in Kaduna.

In March 2024, the Central Bank lifted the FX restrictions on milk imports, altering the regulatory environment. However, local production remained below 1% of annual demand, highlighting persistent supply-side constraints despite ongoing policy efforts to build a sustainable dairy value chain.

Production milk in Nigeria

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Milk production in Nigeria increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, Nigeria produced 519.8 thousand tons of milk, showing no significant change compared to 2019.

Annual dynamics of production in Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

After two years of decline, Nigeria's milk production value rebounded. In 2020, milk output was valued at 762 million US dollars, representing a strong 11.0% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production decreased by 29.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of -10.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 687 million US dollars, while the largest decline occurred in 2018 with a 23.3% drop.

Annual dynamics of production in Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports milk from Nigeria

Exports in kind, K t

The market showed significant volatility during these years. Exports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2019, with a threefold difference between these years. In 2020, Nigeria exported 4.9 thousand tons of milk, marking a substantial 20.2% decrease from 2019. The highest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 6.1 thousand tons, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 151.4% surge.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Ghana dominated Nigeria's export structure in volume terms, accounting for 98.2% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Exports hit their lowest point in 2017 and reached their peak in 2018, with a 1.9-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Nigeria's milk exports totaled 7.2 million US dollars, showing an 11.9% decrease from 2019. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 8.3 million US dollars, while the largest increase occurred that same year with a 91.6% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the geographical pattern of exports in value terms reflected Nigeria's strong dependence on Ghana, which absorbed 96.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk to Nigeria

Imports in kind, K t

Nigeria's milk import volume increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country imported 273.0 thousand tons of milk, representing a substantial 63.7% rise from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 58.8%, equating to a 16.7% annualized growth rate. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 128.1 thousand tons, while the largest decline occurred that same year with a 25.5% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, New Zealand (25.3% of import volume), Germany (19.6%), and the Netherlands (18.8%) led the ranking of milk suppliers to Nigeria, with their combined share reaching 63.7% of total import volume.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Volatility characterized the market during these years. Imports reached their lowest point in 2018 and peaked in 2020, with a 2.4-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Nigeria's milk imports from abroad reached 808.2 million US dollars, up by 133.8% from the previous year. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 331.9 million US dollars, while the largest decline occurred that same year with a 23.2% decrease.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, New Zealand (33.3% of import value), Germany (17.9%), and the Netherlands (16.2%) made the biggest contribution to Nigeria's milk imports in value terms, jointly accounting for 67.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020