Maize market in Northern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The maize market in Northern Africa expanded significantly in volume in 2019, reaching 26.8 million tons, driven by government support programs for agriculture that encouraged production and facilitated imports. This growth was sustained despite emerging climate challenges that affected yields. By 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains, which moderated import flows, but sustained demand for maize as animal feed helped maintain market volume above 26 million tons.

From 2021 to 2022, the market volume contracted to 22.7 million tons. This decline was influenced by adverse climatic conditions that reduced domestic production, coupled with transport sector reforms and the expansion of drought-resistant hybrid varieties aimed at long-term efficiency rather than immediate output growth. Continued climate variability and policies promoting sustainable agriculture shaped the market structure during this period.

In 2023, market volume stabilized with a slight increase to 23.0 million tons, supported by improvements in port infrastructure and railway reforms that lowered shipping costs. Concurrently, rising global maize prices, driven by currency fluctuations and inflation, pushed the market value upward to over $8 billion, highlighting a divergence between physical volume and monetary value. Increased demand from North African markets and ongoing logistical enhancements continued to shape the market dynamics.

Production maize in Northern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize, 2017-2020

In 2020, Northern Africa produced 7 643 K t of maize, remaining broadly stable compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 12%, with a compound annual growth rate of -4.2%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 5 285 K t. That year also saw the largest decline of 39.2%, while the biggest increase occurred in 2019 with a 45.1% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Maize production in Northern Africa increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 2 097 M $ US, marking a 10.9% increase compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, production decreased by 13.4%, which translates to an annualized rate of -4.7%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 1 602 M $ US. That year also experienced the largest decline of 33.9%, while the biggest increase occurred in 2019 with an 18.0% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports maize from Northern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

The market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. Exports peaked in 2017 and reached their lowest point in 2020, with a 3.8-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Northern Africa's maize export volume amounted to 10 K t, representing a 46.4% decrease year-over-year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018 at 73.5%, while the biggest increase occurred in 2019 with an 85.8% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Kenya (29.5% of exports in kind), Saudi Arabia (18.4% of exports in kind), and Oman (8.3% of exports in kind) emerged as the main markets for maize exports from Northern Africa, together accounting for 56.3% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, Northern Africa's maize export value stood at 3 M $ US, representing a 38.6% reduction compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 62.6%, equating to an annualized rate of -28.0%. The largest decline was recorded in 2018 at 58.6%, while the biggest increase occurred in 2019 with a 46.9% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017–2020, maize from Northern Africa was supplied to numerous markets, with even the largest destinations—Kenya, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan—together representing only 40.5% of total exports in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize to Northern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, cross-border shipments of maize to Northern Africa stood at 18 590 K t, showing a modest drop of 3.2% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 11.4%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 3.7%. The lowest volume was recorded in 2018 at 14 151 K t, while the highest was in 2019 at 19 197 K t. The largest decline occurred in 2018 with a 15.2% decrease, and the biggest increase was in 2019 with a 35.7% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Throughout 2017–2020, Argentina (45.1% of imports in kind), Ukraine (23.8% of imports in kind), and Brazil (21.1% of imports in kind) remained the key sources for maize imports into Northern Africa, together accounting for 90.0% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Maize imports into Northern Africa increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, Northern Africa imported 3 750 M $ US of maize, marking a small advance of 1.7% year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 14.8%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 4.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over 2017–2020, Argentina (41.6% of imports in value terms), Ukraine (24.3% of imports in value terms), and Brazil (22.0% of imports in value terms) made the biggest contribution to maize imports into Northern Africa, jointly accounting for 87.9% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020