Grape wine market in SADC

Earlier Report Observations

The South African grape wine market volume dropped sharply to 2,980 million litres in 2019 from 5,938 million litres the previous year. This decline was primarily caused by the smallest wine grape harvest in 14 years, which constrained supply and raised concerns among producers about statutory levies. Assistance provided to black-owned wine brands for market access helped support the market's value, which rose to $1,529 million despite the volume contraction.

Market volume recovered over the next three years, reaching 5,354 million litres in 2022. This growth occurred alongside increasing financial pressure on wine grape farmers, with loss-making operations rising to nearly 40% by 2022 due to unprofitability and unpredictable weather. The market value also fluctuated, dipping to $995 million in 2021 before recovering. By 2023, the total volume retreated to 5,080 million litres, influenced by global structural declines in mature wine markets and rising grape prices, which challenged producers even as consumer interest grew in adventurous wine styles and new grape varieties.

The latter part of the period saw significant industry transformation. New wine styles like red blends and co-ferments gained popularity, particularly among younger consumers, while market challenges included rolling blackouts, the aftermath of Covid-19 export suspensions, and policy uncertainty. Legislative changes, such as new excise duty proposals based on alcohol content and restrictions on bonded storage licenses for farmers, added further complexity to the operating environment for winemakers.

Production grape wine in SADC

In kind, 2017-2020, M l

Top producers of grape wine, 2017-2020

World map of production of grape wine, 2017-2020

Grape wine production in SADC increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, 1 051 million liters were produced, marking a moderate 7.5% rise compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production decreased by 3.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.1%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 954 million liters, which also saw the largest decline of 12.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in SADC in kind, 2017-2020, M l

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

After two years of growth, SADC's grape wine production value declined. In 2020, output was valued at 1 639 million US dollars, representing a significant 21.3% decrease from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, production value fell by 8.5%, equating to an annualized rate of 2.9%. The peak value occurred in 2019 at 2 082 million US dollars, which also experienced the largest increase of 9.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in SADC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports grape wine from SADC

Exports in kind, M l

In 2020, grape wine export volumes from SADC reached 438 million liters, showing a substantial 33.9% increase from the previous year. The lowest volume was recorded in 2019 at 327 million liters, which saw the largest decline of 37.2%. The highest volume occurred in 2018 at 521 million liters.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from SADC in kind, 2017-2020, M l

Analysis of export volumes from 2017 to 2020 reveals a broad distribution across multiple markets. The United Kingdom (17.9% of export volume), Germany (14.6%), and Portugal (9.8%) together accounted for 42.3% of total flows, while the remaining 57.7% went to other trading partners.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from SADC in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Grape wine export value from SADC declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, exports totaled 683 million US dollars, indicating a slight 1.9% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value decreased by 6.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.3%. The peak value was recorded in 2018 at 1 039 million US dollars, which saw the largest increase of 41.9%. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 33.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from SADC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, grape wine export value from SADC was widely dispersed across partner countries. The United Kingdom (16.3% of export value), Germany (10.8%), and Portugal (9.9%) together represented 37.1% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from SADC in value, 2017-2020

Imports grape wine to SADC

Imports in kind, M l

Import volumes showed noticeable fluctuations during the period. The lowest volume was recorded in 2017, while the peak occurred in 2018, with a 2.1-fold difference between these years. In 2020, SADC's grape wine import volume reached 3 190 million liters, up 39.9% from 2019. The highest volume was recorded in 2018 at 3 538 million liters, which saw the largest increase of 106.8%. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 35.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to SADC in kind, 2017-2020, M l

From 2017 to 2020, Portugal and Italy consistently accounted for the majority of grape wine import volumes to SADC, representing 67.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to SADC in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Grape wine import value to SADC declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 147 million US dollars, showing a significant 29.9% contraction compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, import value decreased by 26.6%, equating to an annualized rate of 9.8%. The peak value was recorded in 2018 at 241 million US dollars, which experienced the largest increase of 20.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to SADC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Portugal (25.5% of import value), France (22.6%), and Italy (3.6%) formed the key group of partners for grape wine imports to SADC, jointly representing 51.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to SADC in value, 2017-2020