Ethylene market in Russia

Earlier Report Observations

The Russian ethylene market volume rose substantially from 2.9 million tons in 2018 to 4.4 million tons by 2021. This expansion was primarily fueled by growing domestic consumption of polyethylene, a major derivative, which increased demand for ethylene. Import substitution policies further bolstered local production. However, the industry's growth was tempered by a persistent shortage of base monomer production capacity. From 2020, the market faced additional volatility due to geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected prices and logistics, though strong internal demand helped sustain the upward trend.

After 2021, market growth moderated and volume stabilized around 4.4 million tons. The imposition of large-scale technological sanctions by the EU and the US in 2022 pressured key investment projects, including those by SIBUR, and restricted access to advanced technologies, contributing to a slight contraction that year. Despite these constraints, robust consumer demand for polyethylene, supported by import substitution and changing preferences, enabled a modest recovery. The market reached 4.5 million tons by 2024, navigating continued logistical disruptions and currency fluctuations.

Production ethylene in Russia

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Ethylene production in Russia has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, Russia produced 4,439 thousand tonnes of ethylene, which is 5.5% higher than the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, production grew by 48.5%, representing an annualized growth rate of 14.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Russia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports ethylene from Russia

Exports in kind, t

Russia exported 0.4 tonnes of ethylene in 2021, marking a 17.7% increase compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2019 to 2021, exports rose by 8.2%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2020 at 0.3 tonnes, which also saw the largest decline of 8.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Russia in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, Russia's ethylene exports in kind were almost entirely directed to Belarus, which accounted for 94.4% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Russia in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, K $ US

Russia's ethylene export value has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2021, the export value reached 7.6 thousand US dollars, showing an 8.1% uptick compared to 2020. Over the period from 2019 to 2021, exports grew by 9.2%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Russia in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Throughout 2018 to 2021, Belarus dominated Russia's ethylene export structure in value terms, holding a share of 95.5% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Russia in value, 2018-2021

Imports ethylene to Russia

Imports in kind, t

Imported ethylene volumes in Russia have declined for the third consecutive year. In 2021, imports reached 141.9 tonnes, which is 44.4% lower than the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, imports decreased by 60.3%, equating to an annualized decline rate of 26.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Russia in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, the principal destinations for Russia's ethylene imports in kind were Serbia (38.2% of imports), Czechia (33.6% of imports), and Belarus (18.8% of imports), together accounting for 90.6% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Russia in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, K $ US

Ethylene deliveries to Russia have declined for the second consecutive year. In 2021, imports stood at 281.5 thousand US dollars, representing a sharp decline of 42.4% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, imports decreased by 63.1%, with a compound annual decline rate (CAGR) of 28.3%. The highest import value was recorded in 2019 at 819.4 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 7.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Russia in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the principal destinations for Russia's ethylene imports in value terms were Czechia (31.4% of imports), Serbia (31.0% of imports), and Belarus (21.8% of imports), collectively accounting for 84.2% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Russia in value, 2018-2021