Coconut oil and fractions market in South-eastern Asia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) intervened to stabilize copra prices by having oil mills purchase directly from farmers, supporting the industry's foundation. Global vegetable oil market volatility in 2019 affected local copra prices, preceding a significant production drop in 2020. That year, the COVID-19 pandemic increased worldwide demand for health-focused coconut products like virgin coconut oil, leading to an export boom from the Philippines. This surge in external demand occurred alongside domestic production challenges, contributing to a reduction in the available local market volume.

The period from 2021 to 2023 was marked by sustained global demand for coconut oil, driven by health trends, which supported export activity. The PCA promoted value addition and group marketing for farmers to capture better prices. In 2022, alongside a growing global market valued at USD 5.88 billion, regulatory measures such as moisture content testing and floor price setting for copra were implemented to protect farmers. By 2023, rising copra costs increased retail prices for refined coconut oil, pressuring processors and consumers, prompting the PCA to consider intensified export monitoring and a review of biofuel blend policies.

In 2024, coconut oil export value soared past $2 billion, driven by a sharp increase in global prices and shipment volumes, with crude oil exports up 51.3% and non-chemically modified oil exports surging 163%. Despite a 2.6% decline in coconut production, the PCA anticipated copra price recovery and continued to advocate for farmer income stabilization through value addition and intercropping. Regional trends, including a shift toward chemical-free cultivation and the Bio-Circular-Green Economy concept in Thailand, further characterized the market's evolution in South-eastern Asia.

Production coconut oil and fractions in South-eastern Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of coconut oil and fractions, 2017-2020

World map of production of coconut oil and fractions, 2017-2020

Coconut oil and fractions production in South-eastern Asia declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 1 873 K t, representing a significant 20.4% year-on-year decrease. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 24.7%, with an average annual decline of 9.0%. The peak was reached in 2018 at 2 540 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 2.1% during this timeframe.

Annual dynamics of production in South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, the value of coconut oil and fractions output in South-eastern Asia stood at 3 014 M $ US, marking a substantial 14.7% drop from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production value decreased by 30.2%, with an average annual decline of 11.3%. The most significant decline occurred in 2018 at 27.2%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 12.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in South-eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports coconut oil and fractions from South-eastern Asia

Exports in kind, K t

Exports of coconut oil and fractions from South-eastern Asia fell for the second consecutive year. In 2020, exports totaled 1 005 K t, down 3.4% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 32.1%, with an average annual decline of 12.1%. The highest export volume was in 2018 at 1 617 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 9.2%. The most significant drop occurred in 2019, with a 35.6% decline.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States, the Netherlands, and China consistently led the export structure in kind. The United States accounted for 27.4% of exports, the Netherlands for 25.0%, and China for 10.6%. Together, these three countries represented 63.1% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

After two years of decline, exports of coconut oil and fractions from South-eastern Asia increased in 2020. The export value reached 1 617 M $ US, up 3.5% from the previous year. However, over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 37.1%, with an average annual decline of 14.3%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 1 562 M $ US, and the largest decline occurred in 2018 at 22.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South-eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, the Netherlands, the United States, and China remained the top markets for exports in value terms. Together, they accounted for 64.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from South-eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports coconut oil and fractions to South-eastern Asia

Imports in kind, K t

Import levels showed volatility over the observed period. In 2019, imports hit a low of 45 K t, with the largest decline of 39.3% that year. By 2020, imports surged to 80 K t, an 80.4% increase from 2019, marking the high point. Overall, imports fluctuated 1.8-fold between these years.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the import structure in kind was balanced rather than concentrated. Papua New Guinea accounted for 8.9% of imports, Australia for 1.1%, and Fiji for 0.9%, together representing 10.9% of total flows. Many other countries made up the remaining 89.1%.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to South-eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After two years of decrease, imports of coconut oil and fractions into South-eastern Asia rose in 2020. Imports amounted to 308 M $ US, a dramatic 32.4% year-on-year gain. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 3%, with an average annual rate of 1.0%. The lowest value was in 2019 at 232 M $ US, which also saw the largest decline of 19.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South-eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over 2017-2020, imports in value terms relied on a wide range of partner countries. Papua New Guinea accounted for 8.8% of imports, India for 1.4%, and Australia for 1.1%, together taking just 11.2% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to South-eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020