Cocoa powder and cake market in Northern Europe

Earlier Report Observations

The cocoa powder and cake market in Northern Europe underwent notable changes from 2018 to 2020. In 2018, demand for cocoa powder exceeded supply for the first time in two decades, as more companies sourced cocoa while producers delivered less. This initial tension was reflected in a market volume of 92 401 t. By 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic created widespread uncertainty, disrupting supply chains and sustainability risks, which contributed to a reduction in imports and a further market contraction to 82 886 t.

From 2021 to 2023, the market volume in physical terms continued to decline, reaching 66 723 t by 2023, while the market value in monetary terms remained relatively stable around $207–227 million, indicating rising unit prices. This period aligned with a long-term tripling of global cocoa demand over forty years, driven largely by Europe and North America. In the regional market, however, higher prices likely tempered volume growth, leading to a smaller physical market.

In 2024, cocoa prices tripled during the year, reaching record levels due to poor harvests in West Africa and reduced global production. This price surge occurred within a concentrated market structure where four companies control two-thirds of the world's grinding capacity, creating barriers for new entrants. Import volumes reached 46 962 t and exports 17 296 t, reflecting continued trade amid high price volatility and supply constraints linked to aging plantations and limited investment.

Production cocoa powder and cake in Northern Europe

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of cocoa powder and cake, 2017-2020

World map of production of cocoa powder and cake, 2017-2020

In Northern Europe, cocoa powder and cake production reached 61,399 tonnes in 2020, showing a moderate 4.1% increase compared to 2019. Looking at the broader period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 2.3%, which translates to an annualized rate of 0.8%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 58,977 tonnes, while the highest was in 2018 at 62,825 tonnes. The most significant decline occurred in 2019 with a 6.1% drop, whereas the largest increase was seen in 2018 with a 4.7% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of decline, cocoa powder and cake production in Northern Europe rebounded in value terms. In 2020, the output was valued at 135.7 million US dollars, reflecting a 3.5% increase from the previous year. However, over the period from 2017 to 2020, production value decreased by 19.1%, equating to an annualized decline of 6.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 131.1 million US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 13.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports cocoa powder and cake from Northern Europe

Exports in kind, t

After two consecutive years of growth, cocoa powder and cake exports from Northern Europe declined in 2020. The region exported 13,608 tonnes that year, representing a 17.8% decrease compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports still increased by 12.8%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1%. The peak export volume was recorded in 2019 at 16,563 tonnes, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 29.1% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the primary destinations for cocoa powder and cake exports from Northern Europe in volume terms were Russia, Spain, and Poland. Russia accounted for 34.5% of exports, Spain for 16.0%, and Poland for 3.7%. Together, these three countries represented 54.2% of total export volumes.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Cocoa powder and cake exports from Northern Europe in value terms declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports stood at 30.1 million US dollars, marking an 18.3% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 10.8%, with a compound annual decline rate of 3.7%. The highest export value was recorded in 2018 at 37.7 million US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 11.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, cocoa powder and cake exports from Northern Europe in value terms were relatively diversified across markets. Russia was the largest destination with 24.2% of export value, followed by Poland at 6.0% and Spain at 4.9%. Combined, these three countries accounted for 35.1% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020

Imports cocoa powder and cake to Northern Europe

Imports in kind, t

Cocoa powder and cake imports into Northern Europe declined for the second consecutive year in volume terms. In 2020, imports amounted to 35,094 tonnes, showing a significant 19.6% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 20.8%, with a compound annual decline rate of 7.5%. The peak import volume was recorded in 2018 at 45,151 tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 1.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain were the main sources of cocoa powder and cake imports into Northern Europe in volume terms. The Netherlands accounted for 34.1% of imports, Germany for 23.4%, and Spain for 8.1%. Together, these three countries represented 65.5% of total import volumes.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Cocoa powder and cake imports into Northern Europe declined for the second year in a row in value terms. In 2020, import value stood at 99.3 million US dollars, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year decrease. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 10.7%, equating to an annualized decline of 3.7%. The highest import value was recorded in 2018 at 114.6 million US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 3.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain remained the key sources for cocoa powder and cake imports into Northern Europe in value terms. The Netherlands accounted for 33.3% of import value, Germany for 23.9%, and Spain for 6.6%. Collectively, these three countries represented 63.8% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020