Cheese and curd market in SADC

Earlier Report Observations

The cheese and curd market in SADC experienced a significant contraction in 2019, with volume dropping to 208 thousand metric tons from 327 thousand metric tons in the previous year. This decline coincided with Zambia's implementation of a 0% preferential tariff on South African cheese and curd, facilitating regional market access, while lactose intolerance continued to regulate consumer demand across the region.

From 2020 onward, the market saw moderate recovery, reaching 216 thousand metric tons by 2022, supported by long-term projections for dairy consumption growth. The accelerated expansion of the vegan cheese segment in 2021 created new market opportunities, alongside shifting consumer preferences toward functional, health-oriented products with clean labels. However, sharp retail price increases for cheese, which hit record highs in 2022 and rose by 14.5% year-on-year in 2023, combined with global inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, tempered consumption growth, leading to market stabilization and a slight decline to 212 thousand metric tons in 2023.

Production cheese and curd in SADC

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of cheese and curd, 2017-2020

World map of production of cheese and curd, 2017-2020

In 2020, SADC produced 193.8 thousand tons of cheese and curd, marking a moderate increase of 8.6% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production grew by 18.2%, with an average annual growth rate of 5.7%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 258.2 thousand tons, which represented a 57.6% increase from the previous year. In contrast, 2019 saw the largest decline of 30.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in SADC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports cheese and curd from SADC

Exports in kind, t

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. In 2018, exports reached their lowest point at 754 tons, representing a 40.5% decrease. The following year, 2019, saw exports peak at 3,267 tons, a dramatic 333.2% increase. By 2020, exports from SADC to foreign markets amounted to 2,734 tons of cheese and curd, showing a solid decline of 16.3% compared to 2019. Overall, there was a 4.3-fold difference between the 2018 minimum and 2019 maximum.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from SADC in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, Saudi Arabia (2.7% of exports in kind), Uganda (0.6%), and Nigeria (0.5%) collectively accounted for 3.8% of total cheese and curd exports from SADC, making them the primary destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from SADC in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Foreign cheese and curd supplies from SADC declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, SADC exported cheese and curd worth $39.8 million US dollars, showing no significant change from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 2.1%, equivalent to an annualized decline of 0.7%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at $42.3 million US dollars, representing a 4.1% increase. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 5.5% decrease.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from SADC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Saudi Arabia (with 2.3% of total flows) and Nigeria (0.5%) formed the leading pair of markets for cheese and curd exports from SADC in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from SADC in value, 2017-2020

Imports cheese and curd to SADC

Imports in kind, t

Market behavior showed volatility during these years. In 2018, imports reached their highest level at 69,781 tons, representing a 111.5% increase. The following year, 2019, saw the largest decline of 53.0%. By 2020, SADC's cheese and curd imports amounted to 19,698 tons, which was 39.9% less than in 2019 and marked the lowest point. Overall, there was a 3.5-fold difference between the 2018 peak and 2020 trough.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to SADC in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, imports in kind were distributed across a wide range of partner countries. Portugal (34.2% of imports in kind), New Zealand (7.1%), and Germany (6.9%) together accounted for 48.2% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to SADC in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, SADC's cheese and curd import volume amounted to $114.4 million US dollars, representing a dramatic year-over-year reduction of 29.7%. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 28.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of -10.7%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at $162.7 million US dollars, which was a 6.0% increase from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to SADC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the supplier portfolio for cheese and curd to SADC was broad. Australia (9.6% of imports in value terms), France (9.0%), and Portugal (8.2%) together contributed only 26.8% of total imports in value terms, while many other countries held smaller but notable shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to SADC in value, 2017-2020