Weather Cuts 2026 Northwest US Cherry Crop Below Forecast
Northwest US growers packed 18,201,275 20-pound-equivalent boxes of cherries in 2026, below the May forecast of 18.4 million to 19.2 million. Frost, rain and wind reduced production, while combined West Coast supply fell 17% below the recent average.
Final crop misses revised forecast
The 2026 cherry harvest in the five-state Northwest US producing region finished at 18,201,275 boxes on a 20-pound-equivalent basis, according to FreshFruitPortal, citing industry body Northwest Cherry Growers. The result was slightly below the lower end of the May forecast, which projected production of 18.4 million to 19.2 million boxes.
The May range was itself a reduction from the first estimate published in April, when regional output was projected at up to 21.5 million boxes. Repeated frost, wind and rain affected orchards throughout the campaign and forced expectations lower. In its October 8 end-of-season report, Northwest Cherries said estimates had shifted repeatedly as the weather affected the crop. Despite those disruptions, the final volume exceeded the more pessimistic expectations that emerged during the season.
California losses tighten West Coast supply
Weather also sharply reduced California’s crop, limiting the usual transition between the state’s season and production farther north. Warm conditions at the end of winter brought trees out of dormancy early, before rain and frost damaged both production and fruit quality. California ultimately packed 5.55 million boxes and ended its season abruptly in June, when packout was 965,231 boxes lower than in the same month a year earlier.
Combined California and Northwest production reached 23.2 million boxes in 2026. West Coast output had exceeded 28 million boxes in each of the previous three seasons, making this year’s supply 17% lower than the recent average. The early finish in California also meant minimal overlap with the Northwest campaign. That overlap normally maintains retail continuity and helps establish pricing for the remainder of the season.
Earlier shipments reshape retail planning
Northwest producers partially maintained retail momentum by moving more fruit at the beginning of the campaign. Northwest Cherries reported that more than 2.4 million boxes shipped during the first 14 days in each of the past two seasons, about 71% more volume than five years ago. The change requires retailers and suppliers to schedule promotions earlier, when promotable volumes are building quickly. The association also urged retailers to monitor displays and remove deteriorating fruit to protect repeat purchases.
Fruit quality in the Northwest remained strong despite the weather, with consistency in size, sugar levels and firmness, according to Northwest Cherries. Exports also retained their established role: the region historically sends about 30% of its crop abroad. Canada remained the largest international buyer with a 10% share. China increased its share from 4% to 6%, while Korea’s share doubled from 2% to 4%. Stable export demand provides an outlet for growers, but the smaller West Coast crop leaves less total fruit available for both domestic promotions and overseas programs.
