USDA raises Romania’s wheat forecast to 12.5 million tonnes as Black Sea risks support prices
USDA’s August outlook raised Romania’s 2026/27 wheat production forecast by 1.5 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes. Larger regional supply pressured grain prices, although disruptions at Novorossiysk restored a geopolitical risk premium.
Romanian wheat outlook receives a 13.6% upgrade
The US Department of Agriculture’s August report raised Romania’s 2026/27 wheat production estimate from 11 million to 12.5 million tonnes, according to Agrointel. The 1.5-million-tonne increase, equivalent to 13.6%, partly reflects a larger harvested area. USDA now puts that area at 2.37 million hectares, compared with 2.25 million hectares in its July assessment.
The revisions extend beyond wheat. Romania’s barley forecast increased from 3.2 million to 3.4 million tonnes, while its harvested area remained at 635,000 hectares. The corn projection was unchanged at 7.237 million tonnes from 1.68 million hectares. For oilseeds, sunflower production rose from 2.28 million to 2.60 million tonnes, an increase of 320,000 tonnes or 14%, with the area maintained at 1.22 million hectares. Soybean output was raised from 270,000 to 310,000 tonnes, while rapeseed remained at 3.52 million tonnes.
Global wheat stocks rise as export forecasts fall
For 2026/27, USDA estimates global wheat supply at 1.0995 billion tonnes, 500,000 tonnes above its previous forecast, primarily because of higher opening stocks. Production estimates were lowered to 134 million tonnes for the EU, 12 million tonnes for the UK and 6.1 million tonnes for Brazil after above-average temperatures affected yields.
Forecast global wheat trade was reduced by 300,000 tonnes to 212.7 million tonnes. Agrointel linked the revision to lower projected exports from Russia, at 46 million tonnes, and Ukraine, at 13.5 million tonnes, amid logistical disruption in the Azov and Black seas. Global ending stocks nevertheless increased by 400,000 tonnes to 273.3 million tonnes. In the US, wheat production was cut to 41.66 million tonnes because of lower harvested area and yield. Domestic use and exports were unchanged, but ending stocks fell to 19.51 million tonnes, 22% below the previous year.
Corn and soybean balances shift
USDA raised global corn production, including forecasts of 17.2 million tonnes for Russia and 31.8 million tonnes for Ukraine. That growth was partly offset by a reduction for the EU to 50.2 million tonnes, where extreme heat and drought weakened expectations for yields and planted area. US corn production was estimated at 406.75 million tonnes, which Agrointel said would be the country’s second-largest crop on record. US exports were raised to 83.19 million tonnes as stronger global demand coincided with Ukraine’s export forecast falling to 22 million tonnes. Global corn stocks were lowered by 600,000 tonnes to 274.7 million tonnes.
Brazil’s 2025/26 corn forecast increased from 138 million to 140 million tonnes, while Argentina remained at 63 million tonnes. Global soybean production for 2026/27 was raised to 442.25 million tonnes, with US growth largely offsetting a reduction for Ukraine. Global exports were unchanged as lower Ukrainian shipments were balanced by higher Argentine exports of 6.45 million tonnes. After the report, grain prices surrendered part of their gains but remained supported by Black Sea logistics. Agrointel reported that a Ukrainian attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk affected two grain terminals, restoring a geopolitical risk premium at one of Russia’s main wheat export points.
