Thai jasmine rice loses ground as high prices weaken demand in China

Shipments to China fall sharply

Thailand’s premium rice industry is coming under pressure in China as high prices, stronger local varieties and changing diets erode demand. Thai PBS reported that Thailand exported about 139,460 tonnes of rice to China in the first five months of 2026, down 44.84% from approximately 252,817 tonnes in the same period a year earlier. White rice accounted for the largest share, followed by glutinous rice, Thai Hom Mali rice, Thai fragrant rice and brown rice.

The decline contrasts with Thailand’s broader export target. The country shipped 3.5 million tonnes of rice during the first six months of 2026 and continues to target 7 million tonnes for the full year. Historically, annual Thai rice exports to China have ranged from 440,000 to 750,000 tonnes, worth around 10 billion to 13.6 billion baht, or $300 million to $400 million. Those shipments represented about 7% to 12% of China’s total rice imports.

Premium position faces price competition

Thai rice is recognised by Chinese consumers for its taste and quality and is positioned as a premium product, including as a gift during festivals. That positioning also leaves it more expensive than rice from Vietnam, Pakistan and India, as well as domestically produced Chinese rice. According to Thai PBS, price has become a decisive purchasing factor and Thai suppliers have consequently lost market share.

China’s domestic balance adds to the competitive pressure. The country produces approximately 180 million to 185 million tonnes of rice annually and consumes about 145 million to 148 million tonnes. Its annual exportable surplus is estimated at 1 million to 2 million tonnes. Overall Chinese rice demand has declined from around 154 million tonnes a year to approximately 145 million tonnes as younger consumers eat less rice, switch to other grains or mix rice with grains. China has also developed higher-yielding varieties with improved taste, quality and diversity at more accessible prices.

Market access remains tightly managed. China imports rice through a quota system, while foreign exporters, producers and processors must register with the General Administration of Customs of China before shipping. A total of 115 Thai rice exporters are currently registered. Around 80% of Thai rice entering China is distributed in the country’s southern regions, primarily through wholesalers and retailers serving middle- and upper-market restaurants, hotels, department stores, supermarkets and modern retail outlets.

Thailand targets quality and specialised demand

Thai authorities are seeking to defend the market through product differentiation rather than direct price competition. Promotion is focused on taste, standards, quality and the diversity of Thai rice, with younger and middle-aged consumers with purchasing power identified as priority groups. Livestream sales are being used to reach Chinese buyers. Glutinous rice offers a distinct opportunity because it is used in products and dishes including zongzi, sweet rice balls and alcoholic beverages, with demand rising around traditional festivals.

Government-to-government business remains another channel. Thailand and COFCO completed delivery of 40,000 tonnes of new-crop 5% white rice under the ninth tranche of an agreement. Thailand submitted a delivery price for a proposed tenth tranche of 60,000 tonnes on June 24, and the offer remains under COFCO’s consideration.

The Department of Foreign Trade and Thailand’s SME promotion agency also brought 28 rice and rice-product companies to a Thai Rice Roadshow in Guangzhou on July 17-19, 2026. Further exporter missions are planned for the Philippines and Malaysia in August, following engagement in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. The strategy reflects the limits of competing on price in China: preserving premium demand will depend on verifiable quality, specialised uses and access to consumers willing to pay more.