Russia’s meal, margarine and mayonnaise markets shift from growth to tighter competition
Russia’s oilseed meal and processed-fat industries are expanding, but high domestic absorption and slower growth in mature categories are sharpening competition. Rapeseed meal exports are rising fastest, while margarine and mayonnaise producers remain heavily dependent on the Russian and CIS markets.
Expansion gives way to a fight for market share
Russia’s oilseed meal, margarine and mayonnaise industries are moving from broad-based expansion toward more intense competition over volumes and profitability. Data from OleoScope reported by Finmarket show that production is still growing in several categories, but most output in the processed-food segments is already absorbed by the domestic market. Export opportunities differ sharply by product, leaving producers increasingly exposed to capacity growth, demand limits and pricing pressure within Russia and nearby CIS countries.
Oilseed meal production is expanding considerably faster than the global average, according to OleoScope. The centre estimates that Russian growth rates are five times the world average. The three principal categories—sunflower, soybean and rapeseed meal—nevertheless have different demand structures. Sunflower meal remains dominant, soybean meal is overwhelmingly consumed by domestic livestock producers, and rapeseed meal has developed the strongest export momentum.
Sunflower and soybean meal depend on domestic feed demand
Sunflower meal output reached 7.6 million tonnes in the peak year of 2024. Domestic consumption rose to 4.4 million tonnes, while exports set a three-year record of 2.8 million tonnes. The domestic market has consistently taken 55-65% of production, equivalent to 4-4.4 million tonnes annually. Exports are expected at 2.3 million tonnes in 2025, with Turkey remaining the largest buyer at 783,000 tonnes.
Soybean meal production increased by 9.3% over three years, from 4.6 million tonnes to 5.1 million tonnes. Russia’s domestic market is expected to absorb 82% of output in 2025, with consumption reaching 4.14 million tonnes. Exports are forecast at a three-year low of 681,000 tonnes. Belarus buys more than 200,000 tonnes annually and Uzbekistan more than 140,000 tonnes, while German purchases fell tenfold from 125,000 tonnes in 2023 to 13,000 tonnes in 2025.
Rapeseed meal provides the main export outlet
Rapeseed meal is the fastest-growing of the three segments. Production rose by 20.6% over three years, from 1.24 million tonnes to 1.49 million tonnes, supported by the expansion of rapeseed acreage and processing capacity. Exports account for 25-40% of production and are projected to rise more than 1.6-fold, from 473,000 tonnes in 2024 to 756,000 tonnes in 2025.
China has become the leading destination, with purchases expected to reach a record 525,000 tonnes in 2025. Turkey follows with 75,000 tonnes and Israel with 31,000 tonnes. This export concentration gives rapeseed processors a larger external outlet than soybean-meal producers, but also ties performance closely to demand from a small group of buyers.
Mature processed-fat categories face narrower growth
Russian margarine production grew by almost 5% between 2023 and 2025, from 1.305 million tonnes to 1.37 million tonnes, reflecting annual growth of about 2-3%. Domestic consumption accounts for 84-86% of output. Exports are estimated at 233,000 tonnes in 2025, 3,000 tonnes below 2024. Kazakhstan remains the largest buyer with 56,000 tonnes, followed by Uzbekistan with 26,000 tonnes and Tajikistan with 24,000 tonnes.
Mayonnaise production increased by 6.3% over three years and is expected to reach 930,000 tonnes. Exports grew by 15.9% to 153,000 tonnes but still represent only 15-17% of production. Kazakhstan, Belarus and Uzbekistan are the main buyers, taking 38,000, 20,000 and 17,000 tonnes respectively. The domestic market absorbs 84-87% of output and reached 819,000 tonnes, up 4.5% from 2023. Imports remain limited at about 6% of supply, or 53,000-59,000 tonnes annually. With domestic demand already carrying most output and exports concentrated in neighbouring markets, further capacity growth will make cost control, product positioning and access to retail and industrial customers increasingly decisive for producers.
