Poultry trade reroutes as Brazil loses EU access and Ukraine, China fill the gap

Global poultry trade is being reshaped by shipping chokepoints and sanitary rulings rather than by weak demand, which continues to expand. Of the 13 million tonnes of poultry meat traded worldwide, 2.2 million tonnes, or 17%, are absorbed by Middle Eastern countries, according to figures presented by Mohamed Bouzidi of the French poultry institute Itavi at the Space show and reported by Paysan Breton.

The concentration of that demand in one region makes maritime chokepoints decisive. “300 containers of Brazilian chicken transited the Strait of Hormuz every day,” Bouzidi said. Exports from the world's leading supplier weakened last spring before recovering as shippers bypassed the historic routes. In recent weeks the Houthis have tightened their grip on Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea, the fallback corridor, disrupting flows again.

Brazil loses its European window

Brazil had already redirected volumes towards the more remunerative European market. Over the first eight months of 2026 it shipped 13% more volume to the European Union than in previous full 12-month years, helped by the Mercosur agreements, Paysan Breton reported. That run ended on 3 September, when Brazil was removed from the list of countries authorised to export poultry to the EU over insufficient guarantees on the use of antimicrobials in poultry production. Asia has since returned as the leading destination for Brazilian exporters. A European audit carried out in recent days found Brazilian sanitary controls in the poultry sector satisfactory, making a resumption of flows probable in the medium term.

• 13 million tonnes of poultry meat traded globally, of which 2.2 million tonnes go to the Middle East
• 300 containers of Brazilian chicken passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day
• Brazilian volumes to the EU up 13% over eight months of 2026 versus previous full years
• 3 September: Brazil struck off the EU list of authorised poultry exporters

Ukraine, China and Thailand move in

The gap in Europe is being filled by Ukraine, which runs 140% self-sufficiency in poultry and competes on cost: like Brazil, it has access to abundant raw materials, an integrated production system and comparatively few production standards.

China is switching from net importer to exporter. It is targeting third place among world exporters by the end of this year, behind Brazil and the United States and ahead of the EU and Thailand. “Chinese production is rising, up 9% in the first quarter of 2026, and African swine fever has been contained, increasing meat availability,” Bouzidi said. “As a result poultry imports are falling and export capacity is doubling.” Thailand, positioned on higher-value processed products, is also refocusing on Europe. Two-thirds of Thai output is exported, against 33% for Brazil, and its flows transit Bab el-Mandeb, which the Itavi specialist described as a point of vulnerability.

Costs rise but poultry holds its ground

Despite the conflicts, higher freight and insurance costs, inflation and sanitary threats including avian influenza and Newcastle disease, poultry is confirming its status as the world's adjustment protein thanks to its relatively low production cost. Production growth is expected at 3-4% in 2026, with consumption dynamic particularly in Europe, often at the expense of beef.

That global trend does not translate in France, where production is stagnating and the gap is covered by rising imports. According to the Itavi engineer, an easing of tensions in the Black Sea and the Red Sea combined with Brazil's reinstatement on the EU list would increase pressure on French upstream production next year. A lasting crisis, with Hormuz closed and Brazil suspended, would instead give French producers an opportunity to win back their domestic market.