Polish hog prices jump 29.6% in two weeks as Spanish pork supplies tighten

Polish prices break away from the German market

Prices for finished hogs in Poland have risen by more than 29.6% in only two weeks, according to CenyRolnicze.pl. Offers on the open market have reached PLN 7.00 per kg for class E carcasses, with higher rates reportedly available through individual negotiations. Until recently, Polish prices were almost PLN 1 per kg below German levels; they are now roughly the same amount above them.

Top Agrar reported a somewhat wider range of quotations. Most slaughterhouses were paying PLN 6.50-6.70 per kg for class E animals, while PolPig president Aleksander Dargiewicz said the highest rate he had recorded was PLN 6.80 and that he had not yet found an offer at PLN 7.00. Top Agrar's own survey put slaughterhouse prices at PLN 4.50-5.20 per kg liveweight and PLN 5.50-6.70 per kg carcass weight. Liveweight prices increased by about PLN 0.50-0.60 per kg during the latest week.

Spanish heat reduces availability

Dargiewicz attributed the Polish increase mainly to lower Spanish supplies following hot weather in southern Europe. High temperatures slowed weight gain among Spanish pigs, reducing the availability of slaughter animals and the volume of pork shipped to other European Union markets, including Poland. He told Top Agrar that a processor which had previously imported large quantities of Spanish pork, including half-carcasses, experienced a clear reduction in deliveries and began seeking animals in Poland to maintain production.

CenyRolnicze.pl, however, questioned whether the available fundamentals could justify a 29.6% increase in 14 days. The publication said earlier gains of 8-10% could be linked to fewer pigs being marketed during intensive harvest work, but argued that the latest surge was harder to explain. Such rapid movements are unusual and can accompany speculation or an abrupt supply disruption.

European surplus limits the longer-term outlook

The rally has occurred while Germany remains stable. The VEZG benchmark was unchanged at €1.40 per kg of class E carcass weight, equivalent to approximately PLN 6.05-6.06 per kg in the two reports. Top Agrar said low prices had brought German supply and demand into balance, helped by seasonally low slaughter numbers and carcass weights. Across the EU, the Meat Market Observatory's latest figures showed an average class E producer price of €1.49 per kg, 26.6% below the previous year, while piglets averaged €38.40 each, down almost 40%.

EU pork production is higher than last year, while export opportunities have narrowed, particularly in China. CenyRolnicze.pl reported that Chinese imports of EU pork fell 29% during the five months after tariffs were introduced. Spain may gain another outlet after the Philippines removed ASF-related restrictions, although Dargiewicz noted that Philippine buyers are particularly interested in offal.

Dargiewicz expects Spanish supply to recover when the heat subsides, potentially causing a modest downward correction in Poland. He does not expect a pronounced market improvement this year and sees more attractive prices only in the spring of next year, after lower pig inventories begin to restrict EU supply. This contraction is already visible in Brandenburg, where CenyRolnicze.pl reported that the herd fell 9.5%, or about 56,000 animals, over six months to its lowest level since 1990. The number of pig farms declined 13%, equivalent to 15 herds.