Indian rice export prices near 10-month high as El Niño threatens Karnataka crop
Indian rice export prices remained near a 10-month high as rising paddy costs and El Niño-related supply concerns supported the market. Karnataka’s delayed planting and depleted stocks are lifting retail prices, with the impact also reaching import-dependent Nepal.
Export prices hold near 10-month high
Indian rice export prices remained near a 10-month high, supported by rising domestic paddy prices and concern that El Niño could constrain production. The Hindu BusinessLine reported that India’s 5% broken parboiled rice was quoted at $358-$364 per metric tonne, unchanged from the previous week, while 5% broken white rice stood at $357-$363 per tonne. A New Delhi-based dealer said buyers were continuing to purchase despite higher prices.
Indian rice exports increased 5% in the first half of 2026. Higher shipments of non-basmati rice outweighed a decline in basmati exports after the Iran war disrupted trade with Gulf markets. Competing Asian origins were more expensive: Thai 5% broken rice rose to $455-$460 per tonne from $450, while Vietnamese rice of the same grade remained at $430-$450. Demand for Vietnamese rice was weak, and regular Thai customers including Singapore and Malaysia were buying only necessary volumes.
Karnataka planting falls far behind target
Supply risks are especially visible in Karnataka, where about 90% of paddy is cultivated during the June-October kharif season. The Hindu reported that only 2.02 lakh hectares had been planted against a target of 10 lakh hectares. Rainfall reached 357 mm between June 1 and August 4, compared with a normal 506 mm, leaving a 28% deficit. Key producing districts including Raichur, Yadgiri, Ballari, Shivamogga, Mandya and Mysuru recorded substantial shortfalls.
Rain returned in parts of the state in August, but farmers and agronomists said the planting window had already been compromised. Paddy transplantation is normally completed in July using seedlings aged 30-35 days; available seedlings were nearly two and a half months old. A breach near Mile 46 has also delayed water releases into the Tungabhadra Left Bank Main Canal. The irrigation system supports about 12.1 lakh acres across Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, including 8.7 lakh acres in Karnataka.
Low stocks lift retail prices and affect Nepal
Karnataka produced about 56.23 lakh tonnes of paddy in the 2025-26 financial year, with yield reported at 4,904 kg per hectare. Traders said much of the available paddy was milled and exported between January and April, leaving processors and farmers with limited stocks before the delayed crop. In Bengaluru, rice prices rose by ₹10-₹15 within 15-20 days. A 26 kg bag of Sona Masoori cited by The Hindu increased from ₹1,560 in June to ₹1,950, while Jeera Fine rose from ₹255 to ₹285 per kg.
The pressure is spreading to Nepal, which relies on imports because domestic paddy output does not cover consumption. Jagran, citing The Kathmandu Post, reported that retail prices for Indian rice rose by as much as ₹400 per bag in three months. Nepalese industry representative Vibhor Agarwal said Indian paddy prices had increased by ₹800-₹900 per quintal before transport, milling and customs costs. A bag of Jeera Masino rice consequently rose from about ₹2,100 to ₹2,500. These increases show how tighter Indian availability can quickly raise costs for mills, traders and consumers in neighboring markets.
