Paddy rice market in India

Earlier Report Observations

The paddy rice market in India expanded from 176.3 million tons in 2018 to 207.3 million tons in 2023. This growth was primarily driven by government minimum support price (MSP) procurement policies, which guaranteed prices and market access for farmers, and sustained strong export demand as India consolidated its position as the world's largest rice exporter.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a scarcity of paddy seeds and chemical fertilizers, but simultaneously increased international demand for Indian rice due to drought fears in Thailand, supporting market volume growth. The subsequent expansion was significantly aided by the government's free ration distribution scheme (PMGKAY) from 2021, which elevated domestic consumption, and by an increase in paddy cultivation area in states like Telangana.

In the later period, market dynamics were influenced by export policy volatility, including bans on non-basmati rice to control domestic inflation. However, repeated increases in the MSP and substantial government procurement targets ensured continued production growth. The market also saw the emergence of new segments, such as indigenous rice varieties promoted by farmer self-help groups, adding to its diversity.

Production paddy rice in India

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

India was one of the world's top producers of paddy rice from 2017 to 2020, ranking second globally by production volume.

Top producers of paddy rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of paddy rice, 2017-2020

In 2020, India produced 182.7 million tonnes of paddy rice, representing a 4.4% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production grew by 10.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 0.8%, while the highest increase was recorded in 2018 at 6.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in India in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

India's paddy rice production value declined for the second consecutive year in 2020, reaching 60 099 million US dollars, down 5.3% from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production value decreased by 2.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.0%. The peak value was observed in 2018 at 65 982 million US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 6.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports paddy rice from India

Exports in kind, K t

Paddy rice exports from India increased for the third consecutive year in 2020, totaling 414.4 thousand tonnes, a sharp 67.5% rise from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports surged by 147.7%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 35.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from India in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Nepal dominated India's paddy rice exports in volume terms, accounting for 93.7% of total shipments.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from India in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, the value of paddy rice exports from India stood at 136.3 million US dollars, marking an abrupt 52.0% year-over-year increase. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value grew by 118.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 29.7%. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 1.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Nepal and the Philippines were the core markets for India's paddy rice exports in value terms, jointly accounting for 87.0% of total flows, while other destinations held comparatively modest shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from India in value, 2017-2020

Imports paddy rice to India

Imports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility during these years. Import volumes reached their minimum in 2020 and peaked in 2018, with a 202-fold difference between these years. In 2020, paddy rice shipments to India from abroad amounted to 0.0 thousand tonnes, corresponding to a 99.2% year-over-year drop. The maximum volume was recorded in 2018 at 0.1 thousand tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 1 194.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to India in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Vietnam and Nepal were the key sources for India's paddy rice imports in volume terms, jointly taking 86.4% of total flows, while other partners were much less significant individually.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to India in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The market showed volatility during this period. Import value was lowest in 2020 and highest in 2018, reflecting a 69-fold gap. In 2020, paddy rice deliveries to India amounted to 0.0 million US dollars, down 88.6% compared to 2019. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 0.2 million US dollars, which also experienced the largest increase of 2 039.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to India in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, two leading markets—Nepal and Vietnam—together accounted for 85.7% of India's total paddy rice imports in value terms, while the remaining volume was dispersed across a wide range of other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to India in value, 2017-2020