Global wheat output forecast to fall 3% in 2026/27 as weather constrains supply

Production retreats from a record

Global wheat production is forecast at 819-821 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, 3% below the record level reached in the previous season, according to ZOL.ru. The projected decline reflects climatic constraints in major producing regions as well as reductions in planted area in some countries.

The forecast marks a reversal after the preceding record crop, although the available figures do not identify the expected losses by country. Weather during the remainder of the crop cycle will therefore be central to the final outcome. Lower acreage also means that favorable yields alone may not be sufficient to restore production to the previous season’s level.

Consumption exceeds projected supply

World wheat consumption is forecast at 823-825 million tonnes. At the limits of the reported ranges, demand would exceed production by between 2 million and 6 million tonnes. That gap would create a deficit in the annual balance and require the use of wheat carried over from earlier seasons.

Carryover stocks are estimated at 275-286 million tonnes. Although their absolute volume is expected to decline from the previous season, inventories would remain above the average level recorded over the past five years. The headline stock figure therefore indicates that the world is not facing an immediate physical shortage, but it does not fully describe the volume available to importing countries.

ZOL.ru reports that freely tradable supplies are substantially smaller than total global inventories because significant stocks are not readily accessible to the international market. Export restrictions, quotas and logistical barriers in several producing countries continue to limit availability. For traders and importers, the location and accessibility of stocks may consequently matter more than the global aggregate.

Import demand shifts across major markets

Demand in the Middle East and North Africa remains consistently high against the tighter global balance. However, Egypt, Morocco and Turkey are reducing import purchases following favorable domestic harvests of grain and corn in 2026. The change could ease near-term competition for cargoes even as underlying regional wheat demand remains strong.

China, which holds a significant share of global wheat inventories, is not active in the international market. Its absence limits additional import demand, but the grain accumulated in China is not necessarily available to offset shortages elsewhere. This reinforces the distinction between total world stocks and exportable supplies.

India, meanwhile, is considering a return to the global market as a net exporter. Additional Indian supplies could restrain international prices if they become available, particularly while Egypt, Morocco and Turkey are buying less. The price outlook will depend on whether Indian exports and existing carryover stocks can compensate for the projected production deficit, as well as on weather conditions and the persistence of export and logistics constraints in producing countries.