EAEU common fuel market pushed back to 2030, freezing Kazakhstan's price gap with Russia

The Eurasian Economic Union's common market for oil, gas and petroleum products, which was due to begin operating on 1 January 2027, has been pushed back to 2030. The change was recorded in the draft Kazakh law on amendments and additions to the Tax Code, prepared by the Ministry of National Economy, where explanatory notes to several articles dealing with petroleum products state that the launch of the EAEU common market has been moved to 2030, Kolesa.kz reported.

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy confirmed the new timing to Kolesa.kz, saying the revised dates are set out in the draft Concept for the Protection and Development of Competition in Kazakhstan for 2027-2031, prepared by the Agency for Protection and Development of Competition (AZRK). According to the ministry, the decision to postpone was taken at EAEU level.

The common market was designed to deliver market-based pricing and non-discriminatory access to the markets of member states, levelling out prices for oil, gas and refined products across the union.

What the delay preserves

Analysts of the Telegram channel Oil and Gas of Kazakhstan. Facts and Commentary, cited by NUR.KZ, say the postponement carries both positive and negative consequences for the country. The immediate effect is that the current model of the domestic fuel market stays in place: internal prices for fuels and lubricants remain below Russian levels, and the state continues to defend that gap through tax and administrative mechanisms.

That preserves Kazakhstan's price advantage and supports consumers, agriculture and transport. It also keeps the existing system of bilateral arrangements between member states, under which Kazakhstan agrees an annual indicative supply balance with Russia. Under a common market, that system would have to give way to a more market-based mechanism.

Duty-free volumes from Russia

The same analysts put the 2025 duty-free ceilings for supplies from Russia at:

• up to 285,000 tonnes of motor gasoline
• 450,000 tonnes of diesel
• 300,000 tonnes of jet fuel
• 500,000 tonnes of bitumen in peak periods

In practice Kazakhstan imports only Russian diesel and jet fuel, covering the rest of the basket from domestic refining. The delay also leaves room to raise output at home: the government's refining development concept provides for expansion of refinery capacity and the construction of a new plant, which can realistically be completed by 2030.

Grey exports and shortage risk

The other side of the postponement is that it conserves the price gap with neighbouring markets. According to the analysts, that gap creates an incentive for fuel to flow to more expensive markets nearby, generating the risk of domestic shortages. The government of Kazakhstan has previously named price disparity as the key cause of grey exports and smuggling of fuels and lubricants.

Domestic demand is meanwhile rising. The refining development concept anticipates a renewed shortage of certain light petroleum products after 2030, which is why it foresees both capacity expansion at existing refineries and a new plant.

Administrative controls stay in force

The Ministry of Energy plans to extend the ban on exports of gasoline and diesel until May 2027, NUR.KZ reported. Analysts have also said that gasoline and diesel prices in Kazakhstan could rise because of increases in excise duties of up to 95%.

The question of how far the price of AI-92 gasoline would have to move to match levels elsewhere in the EAEU now applies to a longer horizon. With the common market shifted to 2030, price convergence becomes a matter for the end of the decade rather than for 2027, while the quota system and the annual indicative balance with Russia remain the working mechanism of trade.