Brazil's soybean oil exports on track to exceed 2026 forecasts as global demand rises

Exports could reach 2 million tonnes

Brazil's soybean oil exports in 2026 may substantially exceed the forecasts issued at the start of the year, driven by rising global demand, according to Zerno Online citing Argus. Processors now estimate that shipments could reach 2 million tonnes over the year, above the 1.6 million-tonne projection made earlier by the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE). Data from Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Trade show that soybean oil shipments totalled 1 million tonnes in the first half of the year.

Even with the expected increase in exports, domestic supply is projected to remain sufficient to cover the needs of the biodiesel and food-processing sectors. However, stronger competition for the oil is likely to reduce its availability, push prices higher and raise costs for biodiesel producers.

Export sales outpace biodiesel returns

The high profitability of soybean oil trade is encouraging exports. For vertically integrated companies that operate across several stages of the supply chain — from raw material to fuel — selling oil on the international market is proving more lucrative than channelling it into biodiesel.

Last week the average soybean oil price at the port of Paranaguá stood at 5,958 reais ($1,170) per tonne, while the average biodiesel contract price in the Paraná–Santa Catarina region was 5,628 reais per tonne, according to Argus. A similar gap appeared in Mato Grosso, where soybean oil averaged 5,725 reais per tonne against biodiesel contracts at 5,405 reais per tonne in the north of the state and 5,551 reais per tonne in the south.

Crushers are also finding it difficult to align oil prices with biodiesel producers that are not vertically integrated or lack the capacity to cover their own feedstock needs. Industry representatives say these plants are pressing for lower prices in their counter-offers, as their margins on two-month biofuel supply contracts have narrowed.

Biodiesel still the main outlet

Despite the reluctance of biodiesel producers to accept higher soybean oil prices, the sector remains the largest sales market for soybean crushers. Argus estimates that around 6.7 million tonnes of soybean oil went to biodiesel production in 2025, roughly 56% of Brazil's total output. Exports over the same period reached 1.3 million tonnes, or almost 11% of production, according to Abiove.

Indonesian and Malaysian mandates lift demand

Growing foreign demand for Brazilian soybean oil is linked to higher mandatory biodiesel blending in Indonesia and Malaysia, which has turned vegetable oil importers' attention towards Brazil. In Indonesia, the biofuel share in the blend with conventional fuel has been raised from 40% to 50%. The measure is expected to increase domestic palm oil consumption and reduce its availability on the world market, and comes amid a projected decline in Indonesian palm oil output tied to ageing plantations, slow replanting and falling yields.

Malaysia, another major palm oil producer, is also considering raising the mandatory biodiesel share in diesel to 50%. The country aims to lift the biofuel share in land-transport fuel gradually to 30% by 2030. The nationwide standard currently stands at 10%, although some regions already apply a 20% biodiesel content requirement.