Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Guatemala

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2019, the market volume for wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Guatemala expanded from 437.8 thousand tons to 472.4 thousand tons. This growth was supported by a weaker Guatemalan quetzal against the US dollar, which favored wheat imports, and by rising international wheat prices that stimulated domestic market activity. However, in 2020, market volume contracted sharply to 390.9 thousand tons.

Recovery began in 2021 as market volume reached 426.6 thousand tons, driven by increased domestic demand for flour and higher input costs. The following year saw a strong surge to 480.4 thousand tons – the highest point in the period – as the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian exporters constrained global wheat supplies, prompting greater domestic production and leading the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food (MAGA) to recommend diversifying import sources to reduce dependency.

In 2023, market volume decreased to 448.0 thousand tons. This decline was attributed to rising fuel, input, and transportation costs, as well as adverse weather conditions that reduced local grain production. Continued pressure from international cereal prices, linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and global supply chain disruptions, also affected local wheat flour prices.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Guatemala

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

In 2020, Guatemala produced 337.5 thousand tons of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, marking a 15.6% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production fell by 26.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of -9.8%. The most significant decline occurred in 2018 at 19.4%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 8.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, the output value of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Guatemala was 148.4 million US dollars, down 14.7% year-on-year. From 2017 to 2020, production value decreased by 22.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of -8.2%. The sharpest drop was in 2018 at 19.4%, while the highest increase came in 2019 at 12.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Guatemala in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Guatemala

Exports in kind, t

Foreign supplies of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Guatemala have increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, export volume reached 9 322 tons, representing a substantial 43.4% rise from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 170.2%, equating to an annualized rate of 39.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, El Salvador and Honduras were the dominant destinations for Guatemala's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in kind, jointly accounting for 93.8% of total flows. The remaining volume was distributed among smaller markets.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Wheat and meslin flour and cereals exports from Guatemala have increased for the third year in a row. In 2020, export value amounted to 4 100 thousand US dollars, which is 44.8% higher than in 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports surged by 184.9%, translating to an annualized rate of 41.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Guatemala in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During the 2017-2020 period, Honduras and El Salvador played the leading roles in Guatemala's exports in value terms, together capturing 89.3% of total flows. The remaining share was dispersed among other countries.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Guatemala in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Guatemala

Imports in kind, t

After two years of growth, cross-border shipments of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Guatemala declined. In 2020, imports amounted to 62 784 tons, reflecting a significant 20.6% drop compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 7.9%, with an annualized rate of -2.7%. The highest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 79 072 tons, which also saw the largest increase of 9.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Guatemala in kind were primarily oriented towards Mexico and El Salvador, whose combined share reached 85.6% of total flows. Other destinations played a secondary role.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Guatemala in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Following a two-year rise, imported volumes of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Guatemala declined. In 2020, imports stood at 26 835 thousand US dollars, indicating a solid 20.6% year-on-year decrease. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports fell by 4.0%, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.3%. The peak value was in 2019 at 33 798 thousand US dollars, which also experienced the largest increase of 10.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Guatemala in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In the 2017-2020 period, two markets—Mexico and El Salvador—played the leading roles in Guatemala's imports in value terms, together accounting for 85.5% of total flows. The remainder was distributed among other destinations.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Guatemala in value, 2017-2020