Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, the market for wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Eastern Europe saw its monetary value rise from $7.2 billion to $7.8 billion, while the physical volume held relatively steady around 21 thousand tons. This increase in value was driven by a sustained rise in wheat prices, which pushed up consumer flour prices throughout the period. The introduction of export quotas on grains in Russia in April 2020 aimed to keep more raw material for domestic processing, supporting production. Concurrently, reduced sown areas in Europe due to low wheat prices decreased import availability into the region, contributing to a slight contraction in the overall market volume.

The period from 2021 to 2023 was marked by significant price movements and shifts in trade flows, leading the market's monetary value to peak at $10.6 billion in 2022 before easing to $9.8 billion in 2023. High export duties on Russian grain in 2021 incentivized domestic milling, while a record wheat harvest and the impact of sanctions in 2022 lowered wheat and flour costs, boosting production. The entry of new players, such as Progress Agro, and the expansion of Russian wheat flour exports to markets like Afghanistan, Iraq, and China provided additional outlets. However, weakening global wheat prices and only a partial recovery in flour prices during 3 contributed to the subsequent correction in market value, as physical consumption continued a gradual decline to 20.4 thousand tons.

In 2024, the market structure continued to evolve with Ukrainian millers entering several European markets, altering competitive dynamics. New large-scale production facilities were launched in Russia, focusing on feed muesli exports. At the same time, a sharp reported reduction in the output of premium wheat baking flour and rising wheat prices at the start of the year indicated ongoing adjustments in supply conditions within the region.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Wheat and meslin flour and cereals production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 21 400 K t, which was 1.6% lower than in 2019. From 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 10.1%, representing an average annual decline of 3.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) saw its wheat and meslin flour and cereals production value increase for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 7 909 M $ US, marking a modest 1.7% rise compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, production value grew by 9.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Exports in kind, K t

Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) exported 962 K t of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in 2020, representing a 15.2% decrease from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, exports fell by 14.5%, averaging an annual decline of 5.1%. The highest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 1 134 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 13.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) were exported to a wide range of markets. China accounted for 13.7% of exports in kind, Germany for 4.5%, and the United Arab Emirates for 4.1%. Together, these three countries made up only 22.4% of total exports, with the remaining 77.6% distributed among numerous smaller destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) exported 355.4 M $ US worth of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in 2020, which was 12.3% lower than in 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, export value increased by 4.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 334.5 M $ US, while the highest was in 2019 at 405.3 M $ US, which also experienced the largest increase of 21.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the export structure in value terms remained highly diversified. China represented 13.7% of exports in value, Germany 4.3%, and Greece 3.3%. Combined, these three markets accounted for just 21.3% of total flows, with the remaining 78.7% coming from a wide array of smaller markets.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) imported 441 K t of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, reflecting an 18.8% drop compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 13.2%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.2%. The lowest import volume was in 2018 at 350 K t, while the highest was in 2019 at 543 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 55.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the main suppliers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) were Germany (7.8% of imports in kind), Kazakhstan (5.1%), and Austria (4.6%). However, their combined share was limited to 17.6% of total imports, indicating a diversified supplier base.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After two years of growth, wheat and meslin flour and cereals imports into Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) declined. In 2020, imports were valued at 268.0 M $ US, showing a modest 4.1% decrease from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, import value rose by 35.9%, with an average annual increase of 10.8%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 268.0 M $ US, and the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 23.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, imports in value terms of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) were not heavily concentrated. Germany accounted for 11.0% of imports in value, Italy for 6.6%, and Austria for 5.4%. Together, these three countries represented only 22.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020