Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Brazil

Earlier Report Observations

The Brazilian wheat and meslin flour market volume saw gradual growth from 8.2 million tons in 2018 to a peak of 8.4 million tons in 2022, before a minor contraction to 8.3 million tons in 2023. The initial period was characterized by mills investing in blends of domestic and imported wheat to improve flour quality, while the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 increased demand for essential food items like flour. However, unfavorable weather conditions, including frost and blight in the south, limited yield gains and kept market volume stable around 8.2 million tons during the early years.

From 2021, the market expansion was driven by significant supply-side developments. High global wheat prices and Embrapa's investments in drought-resistant tropical wheat varieties encouraged domestic production. This culminated in a record national wheat harvest of 9.5 million tons in 2022, further boosted by the Russia-Ukraine war which disrupted Black Sea shipments and incentivized local output. The increased domestic supply allowed Brazil to double its wheat exports and reduce imports, while simultaneously, milling capacity expanded with new facilities such as Moinho Maratá's 144,000 t/year plant in Ilhéus.

In 2023, wheat milling activity reached its highest volume since 2018, yet the flour market size experienced a slight decrease. Stable demand for bread and pasta continued to underpin consumption. Regulatory changes also shaped the market landscape, with Anvisa's RDC 711/2022 introducing new sanitary and labeling requirements for flour and cereal products, and the organic flour segment growing through dedicated supply agreements.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Brazil

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Globally, Brazil ranked as the 10th largest producer of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from 2018 to 2021.

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2018-2021

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2018-2021

Brazil's production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals grew for the third consecutive year. In 2021, the country produced 8 061 K t, marking a 0.7% increase year-over-year. Between 2018 and 2021, production rose by 3.2%, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Brazil in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

In 2021, the output of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Brazil was valued at 4 352 M $ US, showing a modest uptick of 8.4% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, production value decreased by 9.6%, with an annualized decline of 3.3%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 4 015 M $ US, while the peak occurred in 2019 at 5 291 M $ US. The most significant drop was in 2020, falling by 24.1%, whereas the largest increase was in 2019, rising by 9.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Brazil in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Brazil

Exports in kind, K t

Brazil's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals increased for the third year in a row. In 2021, the country exported 44.9 K t, which is 18.1% higher than the previous year. From 2018 to 2021, exports surged by 463.8%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Brazil in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Venezuela dominated Brazil's export structure in kind, consistently accounting for 96.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Brazil in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

Brazil's export volumes of wheat and meslin flour and cereals rose for the third consecutive year. In 2021, exports reached 24.2 M $ US, a 27.1% increase from the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, exports grew by 394.2%, with a CAGR of 70.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Brazil in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, the geographical pattern of Brazil's exports in value terms showed a strong reliance on Venezuela, which absorbed 95.2% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Brazil in value, 2018-2021

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Brazil

Imports in kind, K t

In 2021, Brazil imported 311.5 K t of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, an 18.0% increase year-over-year. From 2018 to 2021, imports decreased by 12.4%, equating to an annualized decline of 4.3%. The lowest volume was recorded in 2020 at 264.0 K t, while the highest was in 2019 at 373.0 K t. The most substantial drop occurred in 2020, falling by 29.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Brazil in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Argentina accounted for 89.9% of Brazil's total imports in kind of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, with the remaining flows distributed among various smaller partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Brazil in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2021, Brazil's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals totaled 120.9 M $ US, up by 21.4% compared to 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, imports decreased by 11.3%, with a CAGR of 3.9%. The minimum value was in 2020 at 99.6 M $ US, and the maximum was in 2019 at 144.0 M $ US. The largest decline was in 2020, dropping by 30.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Brazil in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, Argentina remained the dominant source for Brazil's imports in value terms, holding an 87.9% share of total flows, while the rest was fragmented across other markets.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Brazil in value, 2018-2021