Water-based polymer paints and varnishes market in Russia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the production and market volume of water-based polymer paints and varnishes in Russia grew substantially. Initial increases were supported by rising demand for eco-friendly, water-based products and a national import substitution policy that boosted domestic output. A major surge occurred in 2020, with production jumping to 974 thousand tons and market size exceeding 1 million tons. This acceleration was fueled by geopolitical sanctions that constrained imports and prompted the opening of new production capacities, such as SIBUR's facilities for raw materials, alongside heightened state support for the chemical industry.

The market stabilized at a high level between 2021 and 2023, albeit with some fluctuations. In 2021, a temporary increase in import value supported the market size of 1 019 thousand tons despite a slight dip in production. During this period, new labeling and packaging requirements were implemented to enhance traceability and quality. The market contracted in 2022 to 944 thousand tons, influenced by ongoing sanctions and logistical constraints affecting supply chains. By 2023, production rebounded to 975 thousand tons, driven by continued import substitution, investments in modernization, and the expansion of innovative product ranges, including powder coatings.

In 2024, production declined to 933 thousand tons and the market size decreased to 937 thousand tons. However, 2025 saw a strong recovery in output, which rose significantly to 1 074 thousand tons, indicating renewed expansion in the sector's production capabilities.

Production water-based polymer paints and varnishes in Russia

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

After two consecutive years of growth, Russia's production of water-based polymer paints and varnishes experienced a decline. In 2021, output reached 968 thousand tons, marking a slight decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous year. Looking at the broader period from 2018 to 2021, production surged by 62.4%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 17.5%. The peak production level was recorded in 2020 at 974 thousand tons, with the most significant year-on-year increase also occurring that year at 51.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Russia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports water-based polymer paints and varnishes from Russia

Exports in kind, t

In 2021, Russia's exports of water-based polymer paints and varnishes totaled 22 204 tons, showing a robust increase of 16.2% compared to 2020. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, exports grew by 33.2%, averaging an annual growth rate of 10.0%. The largest decline was observed in 2020 at 5.2%, while the most substantial increase occurred in 2019 with a rise of 20.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Russia in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine were the primary destinations for Russia's water-based polymer paints and varnishes exports in volume terms. Kazakhstan accounted for 37.4% of exports, Belarus for 22.5%, and Ukraine for 15.3%, collectively representing 75.2% of total export volumes during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Russia in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2021, the value of Russia's water-based polymer paints and varnishes exports reached 30.4 million US dollars, reflecting a significant increase of 44.8% compared to 2020. Between 2018 and 2021, export value rose by 67.5%, with an average annual growth rate of 18.8%. The largest decline was recorded in 2020 at 8.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Russia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

During 2018–2021, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine emerged as the key markets for Russia's water-based polymer paints and varnishes exports in value terms. Kazakhstan contributed 40.2% of export value, Belarus 27.4%, and Ukraine 10.4%, together accounting for 78.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Russia in value, 2018-2021

Imports water-based polymer paints and varnishes to Russia

Imports in kind, t

In 2021, Russia's imports of water-based polymer paints and varnishes amounted to 69 086 tons, representing an increase of 11.5% from the previous year. Over the 2018-2021 period, imports grew by 17.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.6%. The largest decline was observed in 2020 at 3.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Russia in kind, 2018-2021, t

An analysis of import volumes from 2018 to 2021 reveals a diverse distribution across multiple markets. Germany accounted for 18.4% of imports, the United Kingdom for 15.0%, and Finland for 14.3%, with these three countries together representing 47.6% of total import volumes. The remaining 52.4% was distributed among numerous other trading partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Russia in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2021, the value of Russia's water-based polymer paints and varnishes imports reached 207.0 million US dollars, marking a substantial increase of 24.7% compared to 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, import value rose by 29.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.9%. The largest decline was recorded in 2020 at 1.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Russia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Finland were significant suppliers of water-based polymer paints and varnishes to Russia in value terms. Germany accounted for 18.8% of import value, the United Kingdom for 14.1%, and Finland for 13.8%, with their combined share reaching 46.6% of total imports. The remaining 53.4% was spread across a wide range of other partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Russia in value, 2018-2021