Walnuts market in Eastern Asia

Earlier Report Observations

The walnut market in Eastern Asia expanded in volume from 858 thousand tons in 2018 to 1,044 thousand tons in 2020. This initial growth phase was supported by the entry of state-owned capital following the stock market listing of leading processor Yangyuan Beverage in 2018, alongside technological innovations such as its whole walnut CET cold extraction technology that improved processing efficiency. Further policy support came in 2019 with tax incentives for walnut oil production lines in Shanxi province, reducing costs for deep-processing enterprises. The launch of new product variants by Yangyuan in 2020, including Six Walnuts Camuning and Six Walnuts 2430, catered to diverse consumer tastes and helped drive consumption.

Market volume dipped to 992 thousand tons in 2021 before recovering to 1,171 thousand tons by 2023. The post-pandemic period saw uneven consumption recovery, with sales of walnut milk—a key processed product—declining in 2022 due to this factor and price volatility. The market's subsequent recovery was bolstered by regulatory pushes for sustainable production, as evidenced by Six Walnuts being named a 'Green Factory' under China's dual-carbon policy in 2023. Concurrent tax policy clarifications and R&D incentives for walnut oil processing in Shanxi provided continued fiscal support for industry modernization.

Looking at 2024, new national quality standards for walnuts were introduced, directly affecting labeling and packaging compliance. The government's designation of 2024 as a 'Consumption Promotion Year' aimed to stimulate demand for walnuts and their products. Major player Six Walnuts expanded its product line with offerings like red date walnut milk and oat walnut milk, while its distributor network grew beyond 2,500 partners, significantly enhancing market penetration. Throughout the year, the national walnut price index experienced fluctuations influenced by seasonal supply and harvest cycles.

Production walnuts in Eastern Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of walnuts, 2017-2020

World map of production of walnuts, 2017-2020

Eastern Asia's walnut production has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 1 101 K t of walnuts, marking a modest 10.0% increase compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 10%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 851 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 15.0%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the largest increase of 17.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Walnut production in Eastern Asia has declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 3 291 M $ US, showing a modest 7.9% decrease year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, production fell by 34.3%, equating to an annualized decline of 13.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports walnuts from Eastern Asia

Exports in kind, t

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Exports fluctuated significantly, with a 3.6-fold difference between the peak in 2019 and the trough in 2017. In 2020, Eastern Asia's walnut exports amounted to 96 365 t, remaining virtually unchanged from 2019. The highest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 96 875 t, which also saw the largest increase of 179.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Turkey formed the core group of markets for walnut exports in kind. Kyrgyzstan accounted for 31.2% of exports, Pakistan for 14.5%, and Turkey for 11.0%, together representing 56.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The market showed signs of volatility over the observed period. Exports in value terms varied by 2.5 times between the peak in 2019 and the trough in 2017. In 2020, walnut shipments from Eastern Asia amounted to 288.1 M $ US, representing a 16.7% fall compared to 2019. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 345.9 M $ US, which also saw the largest increase of 116.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the three largest markets for walnut exports in value terms were Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Turkey, together accounting for 51.1% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports walnuts to Eastern Asia

Imports in kind, t

After a two-year reduction, walnut imports into Eastern Asia increased in 2020. Imports were recorded at 38 747 t, indicating a slight gain of 0.6% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 26.6%, with a compound annual decline of 9.8%. The minimum import volume was recorded in 2019 at 38 520 t, while the largest decline occurred in 2018 at 21.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States dominated the country structure of walnut imports in kind, accounting for 89.4% of total flows, while other destinations were relatively small.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year decrease, walnut imports into Eastern Asia increased in 2020. The import volume amounted to 249.1 M $ US, showing a modest rise of 8.8% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 25.1%, with a compound annual decline of 9.2%. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 228.9 M $ US, which also saw the largest decline of 28.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the United States was the key and almost sole market for walnut imports in value terms to Eastern Asia, accounting for 92.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Asia in value, 2017-2020