Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in GCC

Earlier Report Observations

The market for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in the GCC saw considerable volatility in volume and value between 2018 and 2023. Market volume measured in physical terms fell sharply from 103.8 thousand tons in 2018 to 70.5 thousand tons in 2019. It then recovered to 95.7 thousand tons in 2020, dipped slightly to 81.2 thousand tons in 2021, before strong growth to 116.9 thousand tons in 2022 and 132.2 thousand tons in 2023. The market value mirrored this pattern, declining from $380.8 million in 2018 to $212.4 million in 2019, then rising steadily to reach $465.9 million by 2023.

The significant market contraction in 2019 aligns with the GCC's established policy of applying selective excise taxes on tobacco to curb consumption, a measure that directly reduced formal market volume. The subsequent expansion from 2020 onwards occurred alongside regional supply shifts, notably a reported decline of over 30% in Syrian tobacco cultivation and production during 2022-2023, which likely increased GCC import dependency. Illicit trade, estimated to constitute about 30% of cigarette sales in the Middle East, has also been a persistent factor shaping the formal market landscape in the region.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in GCC

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

Following a two-year decline, GCC's production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse rebounded. In 2019, output reached its lowest point at 1 360 tonnes, but then increased by 7.4% in 2020 to 1 460 tonnes. The most significant drop occurred in 2018, with a 4.1% decrease.

Annual dynamics of production in GCC in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

After two years of losses, GCC's production value of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse showed recovery. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 7 033 thousand US dollars, followed by a 26.2% increase in 2020 to 8 874 thousand US dollars. The largest decline happened in 2018 at 24.7%. Overall, from 2017 to 2020, production value decreased by 16.1%, representing a compound annual growth rate of -5.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in GCC in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from GCC

Exports in kind, K t

Exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from GCC grew for the second consecutive year. The lowest volume was in 2018 at 3.7 thousand tonnes, with the largest decline that year at 62.2%. In 2020, exports rose by 65.1% to 8.0 thousand tonnes compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 17.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of -6.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from GCC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from GCC were distributed across numerous markets. The top three destinations—Iran (13.8%), Iraq (8.2%), and Vietnam (7.5%)—collectively accounted for only 29.5% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from GCC in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Export values showed significant volatility during this period. The lowest point was in 2018 at 19.2 million US dollars, with the largest decline that year at 71.4%. In 2020, exports surged by 120.2% to 47.1 million US dollars compared to 2019. Overall, from the high in 2017 to the low in 2018, values varied by a factor of 3.5.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from GCC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from GCC were exported to a wide range of markets. Even the largest destinations—Iran, the Netherlands, and Iraq—together represented just 33.5% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from GCC in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to GCC

Imports in kind, K t

Imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into GCC saw fluctuations. The lowest volume was in 2019 at 74.0 thousand tonnes, with the largest decline that year at 30.3%. The highest volume was in 2018 at 106.2 thousand tonnes. In 2020, imports increased sharply by 38.3% to 102.3 thousand tonnes year-over-year. From 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 14.1%, equating to an annualized rate of 4.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to GCC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Throughout 2017-2020, the key sources for imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into GCC were China (27.9%), Zimbabwe (18.8%), and Brazil (16.9%). Together, these three countries accounted for 63.6% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to GCC in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Import values for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into GCC experienced changes. The lowest value was in 2019 at 226.7 million US dollars, with the largest decline that year at 42.2%. The highest value was in 2018 at 392.1 million US dollars. In 2020, imports increased by 25.6% to 284.7 million US dollars year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 11%, with a compound annual growth rate of -3.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to GCC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the leading sources for imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into GCC by value were China (27.5%), Zimbabwe (15.7%), and Brazil (15.5%). These three countries jointly represented 58.7% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to GCC in value, 2017-2020