Paper and paperboard waste market in SADC

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for paper and paperboard waste in Southern Africa declined from 1 335 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 1 190 thousand tonnes in 2020. China's stricter requirements for cleaner waste imports reduced export opportunities and created a domestic oversupply, while the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains and caused a significant drop in paper recovery rates.

Recovery began in 2021, with the market reaching 1 331 thousand tonnes by 2022, driven by a sustained shift from plastic to paper packaging which increased demand for recycled fiber. However, sharply higher export prices led traders to sell waste paper abroad, creating critical domestic shortages of certain grades and limiting availability for local processors.

By 2023, the market volume decreased to 1 273 thousand tonnes as packaging paper consumption fell due to lightweighting trends and weak domestic demand. Throughout the period, broader industry movements like Sappi's expansion into compostable food-grade utensils using bagasse reflected the growing influence of circular economy principles on production.

Production paper and paperboard waste in SADC

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of paper and paperboard waste, 2017-2020

World map of production of paper and paperboard waste, 2017-2020

Paper and paperboard waste production in SADC has declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 1 290 K t of this waste, marking a 6.2% decrease from 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 8.3%, which translates to an average annual decline of 2.9%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 1 520 K t. The most significant drop occurred in 2019 with a 9.5% decrease, while the largest increase was seen in 2018 at 8.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in SADC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Paper and paperboard waste production in SADC has decreased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 146.0 M $ US, reflecting an 18.4% reduction compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production declined by 42.5%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -16.8%. The peak value was reached in 2018 at 257.3 M $ US. The sharpest decline took place in 2019 with a 30.5% drop, whereas the largest increase was recorded in 2018 at 1.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in SADC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports paper and paperboard waste from SADC

Exports in kind, K t

SADC's exports of paper and paperboard waste by volume have fallen for the second year running. In 2020, exports amounted to 124.2 K t, which is 9.4% lower than the year before. From 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 25.4%, with a CAGR of -9.3%. The highest export volume was achieved in 2018 at 201.5 K t. The most substantial decline occurred in 2019 with a 32.0% drop, while the largest increase was in 2018 at 21.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from SADC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, India, Thailand, and China emerged as the primary markets for SADC's exports by volume. India accounted for 43.2% of exports, Thailand for 12.0%, and China for 4.7%. Together, these three countries represented 60.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from SADC in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Exports of paper and paperboard waste from SADC in value terms have declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, exports were valued at 14 047 K $ US, down by 21.2% year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports fell by 53.2%, with a CAGR of -22.4%. The peak value was recorded in 2018 at 34 114 K $ US. The most significant decrease happened in 2019 with a 47.8% drop, while the largest increase was in 2018 at 13.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from SADC in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, India, Thailand, and China remained the key markets for SADC's exports in value terms. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 66.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from SADC in value, 2017-2020

Imports paper and paperboard waste to SADC

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, SADC's imports of paper and paperboard waste by volume reached 24.1 K t, showing a moderate decline of 7.6% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 16.5%, averaging an annual growth rate of 5.2%. The lowest import volume was in 2018 at 17.1 K t, while the highest was in 2019 at 26.1 K t. The largest decrease occurred in 2018 with a 17.3% drop, and the most significant increase was in 2019 at 52.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to SADC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

An analysis of imports by volume from 2017 to 2020 reveals a wide distribution across many markets. South Korea accounted for 4.1% of imports, the United Arab Emirates for 3.7%, and Special Categories for 2.9%. Together, these three sources made up only 10.7% of total flows, with the remaining 89.3% coming from other partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to SADC in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

SADC imported paper and paperboard waste valued at 7 049 K $ US in 2020, indicating a sharp decrease of 34.2% from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports fell by 33.3%, with an average annual decline of 12.6%. The highest import value was recorded in 2019 at 10 717 K $ US. The largest increase occurred in 2019 at 9.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to SADC in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and China played notable roles as suppliers of paper and paperboard waste to SADC in value terms. South Korea accounted for 8.3% of imports, the United Arab Emirates for 7.1%, and China for 5.2%. However, their combined share reached only 20.6% of total imports, indicating they were not dominant in the market.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to SADC in value, 2017-2020