Paper and paperboard waste market in the United States

Earlier Report Observations

Following China's ban on imports of unsorted waste paper in early 2018, the U.S. market for paper and paperboard waste underwent a significant shift in export flows, contributing to a gradual reduction in domestic consumption volume over the next two years. This period also saw increasing environmental regulations and recycling awareness, which set the stage for future market expansion despite the near-term stabilization.

A pronounced turnaround began in 2021 as substantial capital investments in domestic paper mills, particularly aimed at boosting recycled fiber consumption for containerboard and packaging, sharply increased demand. This trend accelerated in 2022, fueled by sustained demand for paper packaging from e-commerce growth during the pandemic, pushing the market to a peak of 30,666 thousand tons with a value approaching $6.5 billion.

By 2023, the market experienced a correction as decreased fiber exports to Asia began to affect recycling rates and mill operations, leading to a consumption decline to 28,909 thousand tons. Scrap paper and corrugated pricing doubled in many areas during this period, reflecting ongoing supply chain stresses even as overall volumes contracted.

Production paper and paperboard waste in the United States

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States ranked second globally in the production of paper and paperboard waste.

Top producers of paper and paperboard waste, 2017-2020

World map of production of paper and paperboard waste, 2017-2020

Paper and paperboard waste production in the United States fell for the second year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 42 200 K t, marking a modest 5.6% decline from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production dropped by 11.4%, averaging an annual decrease of 4.0%. The highest output was in 2018 at 47 787 K t, while the steepest decline occurred in 2019 with a 6.5% drop. In contrast, 2018 saw a slight increase of 0.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The value of paper and paperboard waste production in the United States continued to decline for the second consecutive year. In 2020, output was valued at 7 201 M $ US, showing a slight 1.7% decrease compared to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, production fell by 13%, with an average annual decline of 4.5%. The most significant drop was in 2019 at 11.4%, while 2018 recorded no change at 0.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports paper and paperboard waste from the United States

Exports in kind, K t

Paper and paperboard waste exports from the United States decreased for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports totaled 14 384 K t, representing a sharp 12.7% year-over-year decline. Between 2017 and 2020, exports fell by 21.3%, averaging an annual decrease of 7.7%. The peak was in 2018 at 19 025 K t, with the largest drop in 2019 at 13.4%. In 2018, exports increased by 4.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the three largest markets for U.S. paper and paperboard waste exports in volume terms were China, India, and Mexico, which together accounted for 65.2% of total exports.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from the United States in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The value of paper and paperboard waste exports from the United States declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 2 454 M $ US, down 9.0% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 22.7%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -8.2%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 3 292 M $ US, while the steepest decline occurred in 2019 at 18.0%. In 2018, exports rose by 3.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, China, India, and Mexico remained the primary buyers of U.S. paper and paperboard waste in value terms, accounting for 40.8%, 15.0%, and 11.1% of exports, respectively. Together, they made up 66.9% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from the United States in value, 2017-2020

Imports paper and paperboard waste to the United States

Imports in kind, K t

After two years of decline, paper and paperboard waste imports into the United States increased in 2020. Imports reached 611 K t, a significant 19.1% rise compared to the previous year. However, over the 2017-2020 period, imports fell by 31.8%, with a CAGR of -12.0%. The lowest volume was in 2019 at 513 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 31.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Canada was the dominant supplier of paper and paperboard waste to the United States, accounting for 94.6% of total imports in volume terms.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to the United States in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The value of paper and paperboard waste imports into the United States declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 87 M $ US, a small decrease of 1.1% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports dropped by 46.1%, averaging an annual decline of 18.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, Canada was the key and nearly exclusive source for U.S. paper and paperboard waste imports in value terms, representing 94.7% of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to the United States in value, 2017-2020