Milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The milk powder market in Eastern Africa experienced pronounced volatility from 2018 to 2023. After starting at 34 234 t in 2018, market volume dropped to 26 681 t in 2019 before surging by 40% to a peak of 37 224 t in 2020.

Following the 2020 high, the market contracted to 27 321 t in 2021 and 26 411 t in 2022, stabilizing at 26 957 t in 2023. Domestic production more than doubled from 5 739 t in 2018 to 11 532 t in 2022, then fell sharply to 6 551 t in 2023. Exports grew substantially from 526 t to over 9 000 t between 2018 and 2021, while imports fluctuated between 22 000 t and 35 000 t.

The net result was a market that shifted from heavy import dependence in 2018–2020 toward greater self-sufficiency by 2022, though production volatility in 2023 contributed to a market size similar to pre‑2020 levels.

Production milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5%, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5%, 2017-2020

Eastern Africa's production of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% grew for the second year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 8 309 tonnes, marking an 18.7% increase from the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, overall production rose by 14.6%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 4.6%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 5 739 tonnes, when output fell by 20.9%—the steepest decline in the timeframe. In contrast, 2019 saw the largest increase, with production jumping by 22.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, t

The export market for this milk powder showed significant volatility over these years. The lowest export volume was in 2018 at 526 tonnes, while the highest was in 2020 at 6 258 tonnes, creating an 11.9-fold difference between the two years. In 2020, exports surged by 106.3% compared to the prior year. The sharpest decline occurred in 2018, with a drop of 90.8%, whereas 2019 experienced the largest increase, soaring by 476.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Singapore were key buyers of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% from Eastern Africa, together accounting for 11.0% of total exports in volume terms.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The export market in value terms displayed an unstable trend throughout this period. The lowest point was in 2019, with exports valued at 7.2 million US dollars, while the peak came in 2020 at 16.7 million US dollars, showing a 2.3-fold variation. In 2020, export value increased by 129.8% compared to the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, falling by 40.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Singapore were the primary destinations for exports in value terms of this milk powder from Eastern Africa, jointly making up 7.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, t

After two years of decline, imports of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% into Eastern Africa rebounded. In 2020, imports reached 35 152 tonnes, representing a sharp gain of 54.8% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 3%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0%. The lowest import volume was in 2019 at 22 715 tonnes, which saw a decline of 21.7%—the largest drop during these years.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, New Zealand, Malaysia, and the Netherlands played notable roles as suppliers of this milk powder to Eastern Africa, with shares of 19.3%, 13.0%, and 9.9% of imports in volume terms, respectively. However, their combined share reached only 42.2% of total imports, indicating that the market was not dominated by these countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Imports of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% into Eastern Africa increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, import value amounted to 101.7 million US dollars, showing a modest advance of 5.2% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 3.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.1%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 91.7 million US dollars, when imports fell by 12.6%—the largest decline. In contrast, 2019 saw the largest increase, with import value rising by 5.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In the 2017-2020 period, the partner structure for imports in value terms was balanced rather than concentrated. New Zealand, South Africa, and Malaysia were significant suppliers, with shares of 22.9%, 12.7%, and 12.0% of imports in value terms, respectively. Together, they represented 47.6% of total import flows, while many other countries accounted for the remaining 52.4%.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020