Milk powder market in Sub-Saharan Africa

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2019, the milk powder market contracted as drought conditions in key production regions and rising input costs such as fuel and energy constrained raw milk supply. Low producer prices further discouraged output, leading to a decline in domestic production and a slight reduction in total market volume. This trend abruptly reversed in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global and local supply chains, prompting a surge in imports as buyers increased stocks of long-shelf-life products. Improved unprocessed milk production in South Africa also supported a partial recovery in powder output that year.

The post-pandemic period from 2021 onward saw a sustained downturn in market size. Retail sales of dairy products consistently fell, reflecting weakened consumer demand amid broader economic slowdown. Simultaneously, soaring global prices for energy, animal feed, and fertilizer raised production costs, squeezing margins. The market was further strained in 2023 by foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, which directly threatened the cattle herd and milk supply, exacerbating the decline in both production and consumption.

By 2024, import volumes showed tentative signs of recovery, though drought in major growing areas continued to pressure feed availability and costs. Updated labeling regulations for dairy products, introduced earlier in the period, contributed to ongoing market restructuring as the industry adapted to new packaging and classification standards.

Production milk powder in Sub-Saharan Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of milk powder, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk powder, 2017-2020

In Sub-Saharan Africa, milk powder production reached 36 369 tonnes in 2020, marking a 9.5% year-on-year increase. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 5.3%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 1.7%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 33 212 tonnes, while the highest was in 2018 at 45 457 tonnes. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 26.9%, whereas the largest increase was in 2018, rising by 31.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports milk powder from Sub-Saharan Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Milk powder exports from Sub-Saharan Africa have risen for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports totaled 31.4 thousand tonnes, representing a 20.2% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, however, exports decreased by 15.4%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -5.4%. The lowest export volume was in 2018 at 19.7 thousand tonnes, which saw the largest decline of 46.8%. In contrast, the biggest increase was in 2019, with a jump of 32.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Japan was the primary destination for milk powder exports in kind from Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 0.6% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

After two years of decline, milk powder exports from Sub-Saharan Africa rebounded in value. In 2020, exports reached 95 million US dollars, showing a modest increase of 8.1% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 span, exports decreased by 21%, with a CAGR of -7.6%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 88 million US dollars, and the largest decline occurred in 2018, falling by 15.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, Japan remained the leading buyer of milk powder from Sub-Saharan Africa in value terms, holding a 0.7% share of total exports.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk powder to Sub-Saharan Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Milk powder imports into Sub-Saharan Africa have grown for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports amounted to 534.2 thousand tonnes, indicating a substantial increase of 33.9% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports rose by 44.5%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 13.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, New Zealand (with 19.2% of imports in kind), the Netherlands (12.8%), and Ireland (12.2%) were among the top suppliers of milk powder to Sub-Saharan Africa. Together, they accounted for 44.2% of total imports in kind, reflecting a broadly diversified partner base with many smaller contributors.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Milk powder imports into Sub-Saharan Africa have continued to rise for the third year in a row in value terms. In 2020, imports totaled 1 559 million US dollars, up by 43.0% compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 50.2%, corresponding to an annualized growth rate of 14.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, New Zealand (23.2% of imports in value terms), the Netherlands (14.7%), and Ireland (10.6%) were the largest suppliers of milk powder to Sub-Saharan Africa. However, they were not dominant, as together they made up 48.5% of total imports in value terms, against a backdrop of numerous smaller partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020