Concentrated or sweetened milk and cream market in Sub-Saharan Africa

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the market volume for concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in Sub-Saharan Africa expanded from 638.5 thousand tons to 743.4 thousand tons. This growth was primarily driven by increased imports, as the COVID-19 pandemic altered consumer behavior, boosting demand for value-added dairy products including concentrated milk. In Kenya, a rise in milk production led to storage shortages, highlighting infrastructure constraints amid rising demand.

After peaking in 2020, the market contracted for three consecutive years, falling to 523.8 thousand tons by 2023. Economic hardship in South Africa reduced consumer spending on dairy, while imports declined significantly. During this period, regulatory efforts in Kenya emphasized milk safety and quality, and new entrants in Nigeria introduced packaging innovations and fruit-flavored milk products, intensifying competition and diversifying consumer choices.

Regional policies, such as Kenya's initiatives to strengthen dairy cooperatives and provide extension services, aimed at improving domestic production quality. Simultaneously, the emergence of plant-based alternatives and shifting consumer preferences toward traditional dairy items in South Africa reshaped the market landscape, contributing to the overall volatility in volume.

Production concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in Sub-Saharan Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, 2017-2020

World map of production of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, 2017-2020

In Sub-Saharan Africa, production of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream reached 162.7 thousand tons in 2020, marking a 7.5% increase from the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 13.5%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 4.3%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 181.8 thousand tons. In 2019, production saw its largest decline of 16.8%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 26.8% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports concentrated or sweetened milk and cream from Sub-Saharan Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Following a two-year decline, Sub-Saharan Africa's exports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream rebounded in 2020, reaching 59.8 thousand tons. This represents a significant 53.7% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports grew by 14.3%, averaging 4.6% per year. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 38.9 thousand tons, which also saw the largest decline of 18.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

After two consecutive years of decline, Sub-Saharan Africa's exports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in value terms showed a modest recovery. In 2020, exports totaled 146 million US dollars, reflecting a 6.1% increase from 2019. However, over the 2017-2020 period, export value decreased by 17.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of -6.1%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 138 million US dollars, while the largest decline occurred in 2018 with a 12.7% drop.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports concentrated or sweetened milk and cream to Sub-Saharan Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream into Sub-Saharan Africa continued to grow for the second consecutive year. In 2020, import volume reached 640.5 thousand tons, up 16.9% year-over-year. From 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 25.2%, averaging 7.8% annually. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 504.4 thousand tons, which also experienced the largest decline of 1.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, the geographical distribution of imports in volume terms was highly diverse. The top three suppliers—the Netherlands (17.2% of imports), New Zealand (14.7%), and Ireland (9.5%)—collectively accounted for only 41.4% of total imports. The remaining 58.6% was spread across numerous smaller trading partners.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream into Sub-Saharan Africa in value terms grew for the third year in a row. In 2020, imports amounted to 146 million US dollars, representing a substantial 35.8% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value rose by 41.5%, with an average annual growth rate of 12.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in value terms to Sub-Saharan Africa came from a wide range of countries. New Zealand (20.7% of import value), the Netherlands (16.6%), and Ireland (9.6%) together accounted for just 46.9% of total imports, with the rest distributed among many other partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020