Milk and cream market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018, Kenya's established leadership in milk production, supported by state-owned entities like the Kenya Dairy Board and Kenya Cooperative Creameries, provided a stable base for market growth. The revitalization of dairy cooperatives through digitization improved milk collection and farmer services, while the threat of new entrants and increased advertising by major companies intensified competition, stimulating the market. This contributed to the volume of milk and cream sold rising from 23.3 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 25.1 thousand tonnes the following year.

The sector showed resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as government and regulatory bodies launched new initiatives to enhance milk safety and quality, including plans for a National Dairy Regulatory Laboratory. An expansion in the number of registered dairy processors and milk collection centers supported ongoing production growth. By 2021, the emergence of new product segments like UHT milk and whey, driven by value-addition efforts, alongside continued digitization for market transparency, helped push the market volume to 27.3 thousand tonnes.

Subsequent growth was supported by a rise in per capita milk consumption and a clear shift in consumer preferences towards minimally processed, full-fat dairy products, which began influencing product development. Market competition further intensified with new entrants and a wave of product innovations, including flavored and specialty offerings. These factors drove the market volume to 28.8 thousand tonnes by 2023, with the market value also rising significantly due to this trend towards higher-value products.

Production milk and cream in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milk and cream, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk and cream, 2017-2020

Eastern Africa's milk and cream production has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 25 668 K t of milk and cream, marking a slight gain of 2.5% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 14.6%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Eastern Africa's milk and cream production has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output of milk and cream was valued at 19 007 M $ US in Eastern Africa, corresponding to a slight advance of 2.2% compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production increased by 6.2%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports milk and cream from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Eastern Africa's milk and cream export volume declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the region exported 55.1 K t of milk and cream, down by 13.0% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 12.9%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. The maximum volume was recorded in 2018 at 69.1 K t, with the largest increase also occurring in 2018 at 9.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo consistently held the leading position in exports in kind of milk and cream from Eastern Africa, accounting for 0.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Exported milk and cream volumes from Eastern Africa declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the region exported 40.8 M $ US of milk and cream, corresponding to a drop of 13.3% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 19.3%, equating to an annualized rate of 6.9%. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 54.1 M $ US, with the largest increase also in 2018 at 6.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo remained the principal buyer of milk and cream from Eastern Africa, accounting for 1.1% of total exports in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk and cream to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

After a two-year improvement, Eastern Africa's milk and cream import volume declined. In 2020, import volume reached 129.1 K t, down by 16.7% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 38.8%, equating to an annualized rate of 11.6%. The maximum volume was recorded in 2019 at 154.9 K t, with the largest increase also in 2019 at 31.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

The market base for imports in kind from 2017 to 2020 was wide, with South Africa (5.4% of imports in kind), France (2.1% of imports in kind), and Germany (1.0% of imports in kind) jointly accounting for just 8.5% of total flows. The remaining 91.5% was shared by numerous other countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year uptick, cross-border shipments of milk and cream to Eastern Africa declined. In 2020, Eastern Africa imported approximately 71.9 M $ US of milk and cream, reflecting an abrupt decline of 40.8% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 11.8%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1%. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 121.4 M $ US, with the largest increase in 2018 at 26.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the country structure of imports in value terms remained highly diversified: South Africa (12.7% of imports in value terms), France (3.6% of imports in value terms), and the United Arab Emirates (1.5% of imports in value terms) together accounted for only 17.8% of total flows. A long tail of smaller markets formed the remaining 82.2%.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020