Maize flour and cereals market in Sub-Saharan Africa

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, maize flour and cereals production in Sub-Saharan Africa showed mixed movements. The expansion of maize-dedicated agricultural land and the introduction of new farming technologies in 2018 laid a foundation for output. Despite a slight dip in 2019, the market stabilized as global demand for maize in animal feed grew and processing infrastructure developed in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains in 2020, yet an increase in maize flour consumption within ready-to-eat foods supported market volume, which rose to 40.6 million tons.

Between 2021 and 2023, production continued to expand. Government initiatives to boost maize cultivation, including farmer subsidies, and the entry of new players with modern processing plants, particularly in West Africa, stimulated output. In 2022, rising global maize prices due to geopolitical tensions and stronger labeling regulations, coupled with growing consumer demand for organic and gluten-free products, pushed market size to 43.1 million tons. By 2023, the trend towards enriched and flavored maize flour variants, alongside public policies mandating fortification to combat malnutrition, further drove the market to 44.0 million tons.

Production maize flour and cereals in Sub-Saharan Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

In Sub-Saharan Africa, production of maize flour and cereals reached 40 530 thousand tonnes in 2020, showing a modest increase of 1.0% compared to 2019. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 40 680 thousand tonnes, which represented a 1.7% increase from the previous year. In contrast, 2019 saw the largest decline in production, with a decrease of 1.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize flour and cereals from Sub-Saharan Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Cross-border shipments of maize flour and cereals from Sub-Saharan Africa have grown for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports totaled 438.9 thousand tonnes, marking a substantial increase of 186.0% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports surged by 411.7%, translating to a compound annual growth rate of 72.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the core destinations for exports in kind were Asia (not elsewhere specified), accounting for 2.5% of exports, Special Categories at 2.0%, and the United Kingdom with 0.6%. Together, these three regions represented 5.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The value of maize flour and cereals exports from Sub-Saharan Africa has risen for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports amounted to 240.8 million US dollars, reflecting a sharp year-on-year increase of 31.8%. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 54.1%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.5%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 155.1 million US dollars, which saw a decline of 0.7% that year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017–2020, the main destinations for exports in value terms were Asia (not elsewhere specified) with 1.6% of exports, Special Categories at 1.2%, and the United Kingdom at 1.0%. Combined, these three accounted for 3.8% of total export flows in value for maize flour and cereals from Sub-Saharan Africa.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to Sub-Saharan Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Following a two-year decline, imports of maize flour and cereals into Sub-Saharan Africa rebounded in 2020. Imports reached 504.4 thousand tonnes, indicating a steep increase of 48.7% compared to 2019. Over the 2017–2020 period, imports decreased by 3.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.1%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 339.2 thousand tonnes, while 2018 experienced the largest decline of 23.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

The structure of imports in kind from 2017 to 2020 reveals a diversified set of trading partners. Brazil was the largest source, contributing 21.2% of imports, followed by Turkey at 5.8% and Spain at 5.4%. Together, these three countries accounted for 32.3% of total import flows, with the remaining 67.7% distributed among numerous smaller markets.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After two years of reduction, the value of imported maize flour and cereals into Sub-Saharan Africa increased in 2020. Imports totaled 255.5 million US dollars, showing a rise of 40.2% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 19.9%, equating to an annualized rate of -7.1%. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 182.2 million US dollars, while 2018 saw the largest decline of 29.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Brazil was the leading supplier of maize flour and cereals to Sub-Saharan Africa in value terms, accounting for 22.8% of imports. Spain followed with 5.9%, and the United States with 3.9%. Together, these three countries represented 32.6% of total import value, against a backdrop of many smaller partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Sub-Saharan Africa in value, 2017-2020