Maize flour and cereals market in MERCOSUR

Earlier Report Observations

The maize flour and cereals market in MERCOSUR saw steady growth in production and market volume from 2018 to 2021. This expansion was driven by the launch of new product segments, notably the BRS 015 white maize cultivar developed for gluten-free baking, which created a premium niche. Anticipation of the Mercosur-EU agreement, which promised tariff elimination for agricultural goods, encouraged investment and scaling of production. During the COVID-19 pandemic, continued subsidy policies and agricultural credits helped maintain supply chain stability and support output.

After peaking in 2021, physical production volumes moderated slightly in 2022 and 2023. Market value remained resilient, however, due to shifted demand patterns. The war in Ukraine raised wheat prices, making maize flour a more attractive substitute in baking and sustaining domestic consumption. Simultaneously, rising demand for maize-based ethanol in Brazil opened a new industrial outlet, tightening supply for traditional flour milling. The final signing of the Mercosur-EU agreement in 2023 and reduced export withholdings in Argentina improved export prospects, while new entrants like Milhão Indústria added processing capacity.

Structural and regulatory factors continued to shape the market. The implementation of traceability rules for grain exports and labeling reforms aligned the sector with international standards, particularly for EU market access. Climate variability, including El Niño effects, introduced supply volatility, highlighting the market's dependence on agricultural conditions. The ongoing integration of cereal markets within the bloc and the progressive implementation of the Mercosur-EU deal set a foundation for evolving trade flows.

Production maize flour and cereals in MERCOSUR

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

MERCOSUR's maize flour and cereals production increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, production reached 7 413 thousand tonnes, marking a 1.6% increase compared to 2019. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 7 262 thousand tonnes, which also saw the largest decline of 0.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following a two-year decline, MERCOSUR's maize flour and cereals production value rebounded. In 2020, output was valued at 2 693 million US dollars, representing a significant 28.8% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value grew by 17.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.5%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 2 091 million US dollars, which also experienced the largest decline of 7.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports maize flour and cereals from MERCOSUR

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of decline, MERCOSUR's maize flour and cereals export volume showed recovery. In 2020, exports totaled 185.6 thousand tonnes, reflecting a substantial 59.8% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 12%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.2%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 116.2 thousand tonnes, while the largest decline occurred in 2018 at 39.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Angola and Venezuela were consistently the main export partners for maize flour and cereals in volume terms, together accounting for 83.9% of total exports. Other countries made up the remaining share.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Export values showed notable fluctuations during the period. The lowest point was recorded in 2019 at 33 286 thousand US dollars, while exports peaked in 2020 at 67 441 thousand US dollars, representing a 2-fold difference between these years. In 2020, exports surged by 102.6% compared to the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2018 at 40.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Angola and Venezuela remained the primary export partners in value terms, together representing 83.0% of total export flows. Other partners accounted for the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to MERCOSUR

Imports in kind, K t

MERCOSUR's maize flour and cereals imports grew for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 7.6 thousand tonnes, showing a strong 58.5% increase year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports expanded by 184%, with a compound annual growth rate of 41.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Colombia (26.9% of import volume), the United States (19.5%), and Chile (16.0%) were consistently the main sources for maize flour and cereals imports to MERCOSUR. Together, these three countries accounted for 62.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Cross-border shipments of maize flour and cereals to MERCOSUR increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 6 327 thousand US dollars, reflecting a sharp 45.8% year-over-year increase. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value grew by 159.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During 2017-2020, three key markets—the United States, Colombia, and Chile—together accounted for 60.0% of total maize flour and cereals import value to MERCOSUR.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020