Maize flour and cereals market in Malawi

Earlier Report Observations

The maize flour and cereals market in Malawi began the 2018-2024 period with notable growth, as volume expanded from 2 202 thousand tons in 2018 to 2 461 thousand tons in 2019. This rise was driven by the launch of the National Agricultural Investment Plan (NAIP) 2018–2023, which focused on capacity building and improved production technologies, alongside the Agricultural Commercialisation (AGCOM) Project that aimed to transform smallholder farming into commercial ventures. State-owned ADMARC reinforced this expansion through its maize procurement programs and government-approved price setting, stabilizing the market.

Market volume experienced fluctuations in the early 2020s, dipping to 2 419 thousand tons in 2020 due to climate variability affecting yields and input affordability. A recovery followed in 2021, with volume reaching 2 535 thousand tons, primarily fueled by the entry of new players in processing and milling. This increased competition catered to growing urban demand and diversified maize products. However, volume declined to 2 451 thousand tons in 2022 as high fertilizer prices and persistent storage and logistics challenges constrained the market.

By 2023, the market stabilized at 2 437 thousand tons despite a smaller maize crop resulting from low precipitation, flooding, and reduced fertilizer application. ADMARC continued its procurement activities with price controls, while a consumer shift toward whole maize flour gained traction to improve nutrition security. Global factors, including fertilizer price increases and climate-related supply shocks, maintained pressure on production and prices through the end of the period.

Production maize flour and cereals in Malawi

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Malawi ranked 14th globally in the production of maize flour and cereals.

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

After two years of growth, Malawi's production of maize flour and cereals declined. In 2020, the country produced 2 408 K t, marking a slight decrease of 2.1% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production increased by 14.7%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 4.7%. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 2 460 K t, with the largest year-on-year increase of 11.8% also occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of production in Malawi in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize flour and cereals from Malawi

Exports in kind, t

Malawi's exports of maize flour and cereals grew for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports reached 1 736 t, representing a substantial increase of 790.1% compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, exports surged by 307 189.6%, with an annualized growth rate of 1 353.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Malawi in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, Mozambique was the dominant destination for Malawi's maize flour and cereals exports in kind, accounting for 76.2% of total flows, while other markets made up the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Malawi in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Malawi's export value of maize flour and cereals rose for the third year in a row. In 2020, exports totaled 1 615 K US$, showing a year-over-year increase of 45.6%. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value grew by 487 148.1%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1 595.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Malawi in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the primary buyers of Malawi's maize flour and cereals in value terms were Mozambique (45.0% of exports), Tanzania (28.9%), and Nigeria (17.4%). Together, these three countries accounted for 91.3% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Malawi in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to Malawi

Imports in kind, t

The import market for maize flour and cereals in Malawi showed significant volatility during this period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2019 at 1 612 t and peaked in 2017, with an 8.3-fold difference between these years. In 2020, imports totaled 12 233 t, reflecting a sharp increase of 659.0% compared to 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2018, with a drop of 82.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Malawi in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, the main sources of maize flour and cereals imports to Malawi in kind were South Africa (38.0% of imports), the United States (34.4%), and Italy (13.8%). Collectively, these three countries represented 86.2% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Malawi in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The import value of maize flour and cereals in Malawi displayed an unstable trend over these years. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 1 303 K US$, while the peak occurred in 2020, showing a 5.9-fold increase. In 2020, import value amounted to 7 656 K US$, indicating a dramatic rise of 487.6% compared to 2019. The most significant decline was in 2018, with a decrease of 50.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Malawi in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, South Africa and the United States were the key suppliers in value terms for Malawi's maize flour and cereals imports, together making up 84.9% of total flows, with other markets contributing the rest.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Malawi in value, 2017-2020