Maize flour and cereals market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The maize flour and cereals market in Eastern Africa demonstrated a general upward trajectory from 2018 to 2023, starting at 21 650 thousand tons. In 2018, the expansion of maize cultivation areas and the emergence of state-owned and private companies boosted production capacities. The following year, market volume stabilized at 21 413 thousand tons, even as new players entered the processing sector and demand for maize as animal feed increased.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 altered consumer behavior, shifting preference towards nutritionally enriched and health-conscious maize flour products, which raised market volume to 22 432 thousand tons. This trend persisted into 2021, with consumer demand for fortified and gluten-free varieties supporting growth to 22 886 thousand tons, despite some constraints from raw material availability.

Market expansion continued, reaching 25 249 thousand tons by 2023. This growth was sustained by steady demand for organic, fortified, and convenient maize flour products, influenced by major international companies and widespread fortification mandates that likely included Eastern African countries.

Production maize flour and cereals in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

In Eastern Africa, maize flour and cereals production reached 22 387 K t in 2020, representing a 4.2% increase compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 5%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 1.6%. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, when production fell by 1.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of growth, maize flour and cereals production in Eastern Africa experienced a decline. In 2020, the output was valued at 10 726 M $ US, reflecting a moderate contraction of 5.6% compared to 2019. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 11 358 M $ US, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a rise of 5.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports maize flour and cereals from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Maize flour and cereals exports from Eastern Africa increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the export volume stood at 129.3 K t, marking a substantial rise of 21.2% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 45.6%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo remained the primary destination for exports in kind, accounting for 38.1% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Eastern Africa's maize flour and cereals exports increased in value for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 61 940 K $ US, reflecting a rise of 9.8% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 41.3%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 12.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, the key destinations for exports in value terms were the Democratic Republic of the Congo (28.9% of exports), the United States (0.6%), and Israel (0.5%). Together, these countries accounted for 30.1% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2019 at 27.5 K t and peaked in 2020 at 175.2 K t, representing a 6.4-fold increase. In 2020, maize flour and cereals volumes in Eastern Africa reached 175.2 K t, showing a sharp increase of 537.6% relative to the prior year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 45.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the main sources for imports in kind of maize flour and cereals to Eastern Africa were South Africa (55.6% of imports), the United States (6.6%), and Italy (2.1%). Together, these countries accounted for 64.3% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Market behavior was characterized by volatility during these years. Imports hit their lowest point in 2019 at 31 639 K $ US and reached their maximum in 2020 at 94 542 K $ US, a threefold fluctuation. In 2020, foreign maize flour and cereals supplies to Eastern Africa amounted to 94 542 K $ US, representing a sharp increase of 198.8% from a year earlier. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 26.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over 2017–2020, the biggest contributors to imports in value terms were South Africa (65.4% of imports), the United States (8.8%), and Italy (1.6%). Jointly, these countries accounted for 75.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020