Concentrated or sweetened milk and cream market in MERCOSUR

Earlier Report Observations

The market for concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in MERCOSUR expanded from 936 000 t in 2018 to 1 011 000 t in 2020. Initial growth was supported by a rise in specialized dairy farming across the bloc, which increased milk output and the volume of derived products like condensed milk. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further accelerated demand as shifting consumption patterns boosted interest in longer-shelf-life dairy items, contributing to a notable market surge.

Market volume then contracted to 992 000 t in 2021 and 877 000 t in 2022. This downturn coincided with heightened internal competition within MERCOSUR, fueled by trade integration and reduced tariff barriers, which amplified import flows and pressured domestic production, thereby reducing the overall market size.

A strong recovery followed in 2023, with the market reaching 1 062 000 t. This rebound was driven by a broad increase in regional milk production and consumption, supported by rising demand for various dairy products including concentrated milk.

Production concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in MERCOSUR

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, 2017-2020

World map of production of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, 2017-2020

MERCOSUR's production of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 1 181 K t, marking a 3.5% increase from 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 10.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of decline, MERCOSUR's production of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream rebounded in value terms. In 2020, output was valued at 4 269 M $ US, up 24.3% from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production increased by 16.7%, translating to an annualized rate of 5.3%. The lowest value was in 2019 at 3 434 M $ US, while the largest drop occurred in 2018 with a 5.0% decrease.

Annual dynamics of production in MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports concentrated or sweetened milk and cream from MERCOSUR

Exports in kind, K t

MERCOSUR's exports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream remained relatively stable in 2020, with 277.7 K t shipped, showing little change from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports grew by 30.4%, averaging 9.2% per year. The peak was in 2018 at 291.7 K t, followed by a 5.3% decline in 2019, while the largest increase of 36.9% also occurred in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

An analysis of exports in kind from 2017 to 2020 reveals a diverse market distribution. Algeria accounted for 39.2% of exports, Russia for 5.0%, and China for 4.6%, together making up 48.8% of total flows. The remaining 51.2% was spread across numerous other partners.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

MERCOSUR's exports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in value terms reached 1 004 M $ US in 2020, a 20.7% rise from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports increased by 37.7%, with an annualized rate of 11.3%. The largest decline was in 2019 at 7.3%, while the biggest jump of 23.1% happened in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, exports in value terms were not heavily concentrated on a few markets. Algeria represented 39.9% of exports, Russia 4.9%, and China 4.5%, collectively accounting for 49.3% of total flows, with the rest distributed among other partners.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020

Imports concentrated or sweetened milk and cream to MERCOSUR

Imports in kind, K t

After two years of decline, MERCOSUR's imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in kind increased. In 2020, imports stood at 108.0 K t, up 29.6% year-on-year. However, over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 7.2%, averaging a 2.5% annual decline. The lowest point was in 2019 at 83.3 K t, with the largest drop of 16.1% occurring in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the import structure in kind was primarily influenced by Chile and the United States, which together accounted for 4.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Following two years of decline, MERCOSUR's imports of concentrated or sweetened milk and cream in value terms rose. In 2020, imports amounted to 354 M $ US, a sharp increase of 34.3% compared to the previous year. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 263 M $ US, while the largest decline of 18.8% took place in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Chile and the United States were the main sources for imports in value terms, representing 3.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MERCOSUR in value, 2017-2020