Concentrated milk and cream market in ASEAN

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2019, the ASEAN market for concentrated milk and cream remained stable at around 600 thousand tonnes, supported by investments from leading producers like Vinamilk in modern production lines and a diversifying product portfolio that included new segments such as organic and lactose-free options. The market volume then declined to 560 thousand tonnes in 2020, primarily due to supply chain disruptions and import restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the availability of dairy ingredients and accelerated a shift towards local production and e-commerce channels.

Post-pandemic recovery saw the market volume grow to 622 thousand tonnes in 2021 and further to 706 thousand tonnes in 2022. This expansion was driven by substantial investments in production capacity, including Vinamilk's expansion of international-standard farms and TH Group's construction of a major fresh milk processing plant with a 500 thousand tonne annual capacity. Concurrently, new product launches, such as plant-based alternatives and functional dairy items, responded to rising consumer demand for health-conscious options.

In 2023, the market volume contracted significantly to 432 thousand tonnes. During this year, the broader dairy industry in the region reported growth in fresh milk output and continued technological investments, but these factors did not prevent the decline in the concentrated milk and cream segment.

Production concentrated milk and cream in ASEAN

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of concentrated milk and cream, 2017-2020

World map of production of concentrated milk and cream, 2017-2020

ASEAN's production of concentrated milk and cream has declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 629.3 K t, marking a slight decrease of 1.9% from the previous year. Looking at the broader period from 2017 to 2020, production actually grew by 7.2%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.3%. The peak was reached in 2018 at 654.0 K t, which saw the largest increase of 11.4%. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, also at 1.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The value of concentrated milk and cream production in ASEAN also fell for the second consecutive year. In 2020, output was valued at 1 180 M $ US, showing a substantial drop of 10.2% compared to 2019. Over the four-year span from 2017 to 2020, production value decreased by 11.2%, translating to an annualized decline of 3.9%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 1 566 M $ US, which experienced the largest increase of 17.9%. The sharpest decline happened in 2019, at 16.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in ASEAN in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports concentrated milk and cream from ASEAN

Exports in kind, K t

Following a two-year decline, ASEAN's exports of concentrated milk and cream rebounded in 2020. Volumes reached 102.0 K t, representing a strong year-over-year increase of 37.1%. However, over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports overall decreased by 29.4%, with an average annual decline of 10.9%. The lowest point was in 2019 at 74.4 K t, while the largest drop occurred in 2018 at 42.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, ASEAN's exports of concentrated milk and cream were distributed across numerous markets. The top three destinations—Mexico (9.1% of exports), Gambia (3.6%), and Madagascar (3.1%)—collectively accounted for just 15.8% of total flows, highlighting a highly diversified export structure.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, the value of ASEAN's concentrated milk and cream exports stood at 134.5 M $ US, showing a moderate increase of 4.7% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value grew by 6.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.1%. The peak was in 2018 at 150.8 M $ US, which saw the largest increase of 19.3%. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, at 14.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from ASEAN in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the partner structure for ASEAN's exports in value terms was balanced rather than concentrated. Mexico (8.6% of exports), Gambia (3.2%), and the United Arab Emirates (3.0%) together represented only 14.8% of total flows, with many other countries making up the remaining 85.2%.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from ASEAN in value, 2017-2020

Imports concentrated milk and cream to ASEAN

Imports in kind, K t

After two years of decline, ASEAN's imports of concentrated milk and cream increased in 2020. Volumes totaled 32.8 K t, reflecting a solid improvement of 16.9% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 30.5%, with an average annual decline of 11.4%. The lowest point was in 2019 at 28.1 K t, while the largest drop occurred in 2018 at 38.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Australia (6.2% of imports), France (2.6%), and the United Kingdom (2.3%) were among the largest suppliers of concentrated milk and cream to ASEAN. However, even combined, they accounted for just 11.1% of total imports in kind, indicating a broadly diversified partner base.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

ASEAN's imports of concentrated milk and cream in value terms declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports amounted to 99.1 M $ US, down by 21.1% year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value decreased by 3.2%, with an average annual decline of 1.1%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 165.8 M $ US, which saw the largest increase of 61.9%. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, at 24.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to ASEAN in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, ASEAN's imports of concentrated milk and cream in value terms relied on a wide range of partner countries. Australia (7.6% of imports), France (6.5%), and the United Kingdom (3.6%) together represented only 17.7% of total flows, underscoring the diversity of suppliers.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to ASEAN in value, 2017-2020