Coconuts market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

Kenya's coconut market volume reached a peak of 110 thousand tons in 2020 before contracting sharply to 86.5 thousand tons in 2021 and 71.8 thousand tons in 2022. This steep decline was primarily driven by chronic productivity issues, including widespread aging of coconut trees, with over 2.6 million trees older than 60 years yielding poorly, and a reduction in land under cultivation from 84,906 hectares in 2020 to 77,556 hectares in 2021. Persistent challenges from pests, diseases, and climate change further depressed outputs from traditional varieties.

Institutional and regulatory changes were introduced to counter the sector's decline. The coconut tree was officially classified as a 'special crop' in 2021 with the establishment of the Kenya Coconut Development Authority (KCDA) to lead revitalization. Subsequent government measures included pilot programs distributing high-yield hybrid seedlings imported from India and the commissioning of a new coconut processing plant in Lamu County, aimed at strengthening local value chains and providing farmers with more reliable markets.

The market showed initial signs of recovery in 2023, with volume increasing to 82.1 thousand tons. This upturn occurred alongside a broader policy shift within Kenya's agricultural sector focusing on value addition and sustainable value chains for nuts, as seen in parallel regulations for crops like macadamia, which emphasized local processing and export bans on raw produce to boost domestic industry.

Production coconuts in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Globally, Kenya ranked as the 25th largest producer of coconuts during the period from 2017 to 2020.

Top producers of coconuts, 2017-2020

World map of production of coconuts, 2017-2020

Kenya's coconut production volume grew for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 110.0 thousand tonnes of coconuts, which remained nearly unchanged from the 2019 level. Over the 2017-2020 period, production increased by 19.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports coconuts from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

The market showed an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 16 tonnes, while the maximum occurred in 2017, resulting in a 62-fold variation between these years. In 2020, coconut shipments from Kenya to abroad amounted to 55 tonnes, representing a 242.9% increase compared to the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018 at 98.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Tanzania remained the overwhelmingly dominant buyer of coconuts from Kenya, accounting for 91.4% of total exports in volume terms.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. The lowest value was registered in 2018, while the highest occurred in 2020, with a peak-to-trough ratio of 7.3 times. In 2020, Kenya's volume of coconut exports amounted to 90.7 thousand US dollars, marking an abrupt rise of 80.4% year-over-year. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 12.5 thousand US dollars. The largest decline was recorded in 2018 at 53.5%, while the largest increase occurred in 2019 at 302.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda (27.9% of exports in value terms), Mozambique (27.5% of exports in value terms), and the United Arab Emirates (23.6% of exports in value terms) were the largest buyers of coconuts from Kenya, together forming 79.0% of total exports in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports coconuts to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

Cross-border shipments of coconuts to Kenya increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports stood at 132 tonnes, marking a strong increase of 20.6% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 3.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 96 tonnes, with the largest decline that year at 24.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Indonesia (28.7% of imports in volume terms), China (23.8% of imports in volume terms), and Vietnam (21.7% of imports in volume terms) formed the core of imports in volume terms, together accounting for 74.2% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. The lowest point was recorded in 2019, while the peak occurred in 2020, with a difference of 1.8 times between these years. In 2020, Kenya's volume of coconut imports was recorded at 208.8 thousand US dollars, up by 78.6% year-over-year. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 116.9 thousand US dollars, with the largest decline that year at 32.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Indonesia (39.3% of imports in value terms), Vietnam (24.3% of imports in value terms), and Malaysia (12.7% of imports in value terms) formed the main group of sources for imports in value terms of coconuts to Kenya, with a combined share of 76.3% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020