Coal market in Ethiopia

Earlier Report Observations

Ethiopia's coal market volume fell from 717.8 thousand tons in 2018 to 298.6 thousand tons in 2022. The decline was primarily driven by a 152% surge in average coal import prices in 2019, which made imported coal more expensive and reduced import volumes. This trend continued as domestic production expanded, reaching 264 ktoe by 2022 and cutting coal imports by 45.4%. Government policy to boost local supply was evident from 2018, when eight coal mining companies received production licenses to increase coal's share in the energy mix and reduce hard currency spending on imports.

Domestic coal production accelerated sharply in 2023 to 502 thousand short tons, meeting 65% of demand, while imports rose to about 490,000 tons. By 2024, a new coal factory in Dawro Zone with a capacity to substitute 75% of imported processed coal was nearing operation, and government efforts focused on coal beneficiation to improve quality for industrial use. However, the shelved Yayu coal power plant project and national climate goals emphasizing renewable energy highlighted the evolving energy landscape.

Production coal in Ethiopia

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of coal, 2017-2020

World map of production of coal, 2017-2020

The market exhibited significant volatility during this period. From 2017 to 2019, production fluctuated dramatically, with a peak-to-trough amplitude of 13 times. In 2019, production reached its minimum at 2 700 tonnes. The following year, in 2020, production remained relatively stable at 2 700 tonnes. The most substantial decline occurred in 2018, dropping by 92.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports coal from Ethiopia

Exports in kind, K t

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, South Africa held a complete monopoly on Ethiopia's coal exports in kind, accounting for 100.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017–2020, the export partner base in value terms was extremely limited, with South Africa solely responsible for 100.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020

Imports coal to Ethiopia

Imports in kind, K t

Ethiopia's coal imports declined for the second consecutive year. In 2019, imports decreased by 16.2%, followed by an 11.8% drop in 2020 to approximately 528.3 thousand tonnes. The largest increase occurred in 2018, rising by 11.1% to a peak of 715.1 thousand tonnes. Over the 2017–2020 period, imports fell by 17.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of -6.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, South Africa dominated Ethiopia's coal imports in kind, capturing 100.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Ethiopia's coal import volumes declined for the second year in a row. In 2019, imports fell by 30.3%, then dropped another 18.7% in 2020 to 57.0 million US dollars. The largest increase was in 2018, up 22.3% to a peak of 100.6 million US dollars. Over the 2017–2020 span, imports decreased by 30.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of -11.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, South Africa was the nearly exclusive supplier of coal to Ethiopia in value terms, holding a 99.9% share of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Ethiopia in value, 2017-2020