Coal market in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Earlier Report Observations

The coal market in Eastern Europe, including Northern Asia, contracted sharply from 854.2 million tonnes in 2018 to 462.1 million tonnes in 2020. This decline was primarily driven by the European Union's climate policy, which introduced carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes to phase out coal use, directly reducing demand. The downward trend accelerated in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic suppressed industrial activity and energy consumption, leading to lower coal prices and reduced shipments across the region.

Market volume partially recovered to 514.1 million tonnes by 2022, as Russian coal producers expanded export opportunities to Asia and the CIS countries. Despite EU sanctions that halted coal exports to Europe, investment in rail and port infrastructure in eastern Russia facilitated trade reorientation, supporting domestic production. Higher global coal prices in 2022 further incentivized output, stabilizing the market after the earlier slump.

In subsequent years, the market continued to evolve structurally. Production expanded at deposits like Ogodzha, where output tripled in 2023, while competition intensified in key Asian markets. By 2024, infrastructure constraints and Chinese import duties pressured Russian export margins, but rising coal extraction in Yakutia and other eastern regions indicated a geographic shift in supply within the region.

Production coal in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Top producers of coal, 2017-2020

World map of production of coal, 2017-2020

Coal production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 600.2 million tons of coal, marking a significant 11.8% decrease compared to the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 11.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.0%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 972.6 million tons, which saw the largest increase of 43.5%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the steepest decline of 30.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The coal market in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) exhibited notable volatility during the observed period. Production value peaked in 2018 and reached its lowest point in 2020, with a 2.4-fold difference between these years. In 2020, coal output was valued at 41,826 million US dollars, reflecting a sharp 29.7% drop from 2019. The maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 99,631 million US dollars, which also saw the largest increase of 72.7%. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, with a 40.3% decrease.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports coal from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Exports in kind, M t

After two years of growth, coal exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) declined in 2020. Exports amounted to 195.4 million tons, down 3.3% from 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports increased by 8.8%, translating to an annualized growth rate of 2.8%. The highest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 202.0 million tons, which also saw the largest increase of 10.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, M t

Between 2017 and 2020, coal exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) were widely distributed across various destinations. China accounted for 14.3% of exports in kind, South Korea for 12.7%, and Japan for 8.9%. Together, these three countries represented just 35.9% of total export flows, with the remaining 64.1% spread across a diverse range of other markets.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Coal exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, exports were valued at 13,615 million US dollars, indicating a substantial 22.8% decrease compared to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, exports fell by 11%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.8%. The peak value was recorded in 2018 at 18,813 million US dollars, which also experienced the largest increase of 23.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the largest buyers of coal from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value terms were South Korea (13.8% of exports), China (13.0%), and Japan (10.4%). However, even combined, these three countries accounted for only 37.2% of total export value, highlighting a broadly diversified partner base.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020

Imports coal to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia)

Imports in kind, M t

Coal imports into Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports totaled 57.3 million tons, showing an 11.1% decrease from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports fell by 4.5%, equating to an annualized decline of 1.5%. The highest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 65.2 million tons, which also saw the largest increase of 8.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020, M t

Throughout 2017 to 2020, coal imports into Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) were not heavily concentrated on a few key suppliers. Kazakhstan accounted for 31.4% of imports in kind, the United States for 8.4%, and Australia for 2.7%. Together, these three countries represented only 42.5% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Coal imports into Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports were valued at 4,246 million US dollars, equivalent to a 38.2% drop compared to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 34.5%, with an annualized decline rate of 13.1%. The peak value was recorded in 2018 at 7,660 million US dollars, which also experienced the largest increase of 18.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the partner portfolio for coal imports into Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value terms was quite broad. The United States accounted for 17.7% of imports, Kazakhstan for 7.2%, and Australia for 6.5%. Together, these three countries represented only 31.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Europe (including Northern Asia) in value, 2017-2020