Bread market in Lithuania

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, the Lithuanian bread market experienced initial volume growth followed by a contraction. Major bakeries, led by Vilniaus duona, invested in modernizing logistics and warehouses, which expanded product assortment and distribution channels, helping lift market volume to 164.5 thousand tons in 2019. However, a sustained consumer shift away from traditional white bread towards healthier, value-added segments began reducing overall physical consumption, contributing to the drop to 155.4 thousand tons in 2020.

The market's value rose significantly from 2021 onward, peaking at $436.3 million in 2023, even as volume gradually declined to 154.1 thousand tons by 2024. This divergence was driven by the ongoing consumer preference for premium breads like rye and fiber-rich options, which command higher prices. In 2022, a sharp increase in costs for raw materials, energy, and transport pushed retail prices higher, further dampening volume demand. Simultaneously, major players such as Vilniaus duona restructured operations, including closing a bakery in Riga and consolidating production in Lithuania, aiming to improve efficiency amid these challenging conditions.

Production bread in Lithuania

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

In 2021, Lithuania's bread output was valued at 330.3 million US dollars, marking a 10.8% increase from the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, production grew by 10.8%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 3.5%. The lowest value was recorded in 2020 at 298.1 million US dollars, with the largest decline of 4.5% also occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of production in Lithuania in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Lithuania ranked as the 14th largest producer of bread globally, solidifying its position among the world's leading producers.

Top producers of bread, 2018-2021

World map of production of bread, 2018-2021

Bread production in Lithuania declined for the second consecutive year. In 2021, output reached 169.3 thousand tonnes, remaining nearly unchanged compared to 2020. Between 2018 and 2021, production decreased by 5.4%, equating to an annualized decline of 1.8%. The peak was recorded in 2019 at 181.5 thousand tonnes, with the largest drop of 6.3% occurring in 2020 and the largest increase of 1.5% in 2019.

Annual dynamics of production in Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports bread from Lithuania

Exports in kind, t

In 2021, Lithuania exported 49 839 tonnes of bread, representing a 5.1% increase from the previous year. From 2018 to 2021, exports rose by 5.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.9%. The highest volume was recorded in 2019 at 50 364 tonnes, while the largest decline of 5.9% occurred in 2020 and the largest increase of 6.8% in 2019.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021, t

Between 2018 and 2021, Latvia, Russia, and Sweden were the key destinations for Lithuania's bread exports in volume terms. Latvia accounted for 25.7% of exports, Russia for 17.3%, and Sweden for 7.8%, collectively representing 50.8% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2021, the value of bread exports from Lithuania amounted to 103.9 million US dollars, up by 12.6% compared to 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, export value increased by 17.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.5%. The largest decline of 2.9% was recorded in 2020.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Lithuania in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Lithuania's bread exports in value terms were relatively evenly distributed. Latvia led with 23.5% of export value, followed by Russia at 15.7% and Estonia at 8.3%, together accounting for 47.5% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Lithuania in value, 2018-2021

Imports bread to Lithuania

Imports in kind, t

Lithuania imported 39 177 tonnes of bread in 2021, a 19.9% increase from 2020. Between 2018 and 2021, imports grew by 40.3%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 11.9%. The largest decline of 2.1% was recorded in 2020.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021, t

During 2018-2021, Latvia, Poland, and Germany were the primary sources for Lithuania's bread imports in volume terms. Latvia contributed 26.6% of imports, Poland 20.2%, and Germany 14.1%, collectively making up 60.9% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Lithuania in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Bread imports into Lithuania increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, imports totaled 95.1 million US dollars, up by 24.9% from 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, import value rose by 49.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Lithuania in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Poland, Germany, and Latvia formed the main group of sources for Lithuania's bread imports in value terms. Poland accounted for 19.3% of import value, Germany for 18.9%, and Latvia for 16.8%, together representing 55.1% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Lithuania in value, 2018-2021