Ammonia market in Russia

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2021, Russia's ammonia market volume grew from 13.6 million tons to 15.5 million tons. This expansion was driven by increased production capacity, including the launch of new plants like the Metafrax ammonia facility in Gubakha, and stable natural gas supplies that kept manufacturing costs competitive. Higher demand for nitrogen fertilizers also supported output growth, with production reaching 19.9 million tons in 2021 after planned maintenance works were completed at major sites.

In 2022, geopolitical sanctions and the closure of key export routes, such as the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline, severely restricted overseas shipments. Exports plummeted from 4.4 million tons in 2021 to just 0.6 million tons by 2023. While production contracted by 14% that year, the domestic market volume continued to rise as more ammonia was retained inside the country. By 2024, market volume reached 17.3 million tons, supported by partial recovery in production and ongoing export limitations.

Production recovered to 18.1 million tons in 2024 and further increased to 18.6 million tons in 2025. This growth aligns with the strengthened role of state-owned producers and the development of new low-carbon ammonia projects, although export channels remained constrained.

Production ammonia in Russia

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Ammonia production in Russia has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, Russia produced 19 857 K t of ammonia, which is 1.2% higher than in 2020. Between 2018 and 2021, production grew by 9.8%, representing an annualized growth rate of 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Russia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports ammonia from Russia

Exports in kind, K t

In 2021, Russia's ammonia exports reached 4 424 K t, showing a gradual improvement of 6.0% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, exports increased by 4.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.6%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2020 at 4 173 K t, while the highest was in 2019 at 4 652 K t. The largest decline occurred in 2020, with a drop of 10.3%, whereas the largest increase was in 2019, with a rise of 10.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Russia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

The structure of ammonia exports in kind from 2018 to 2021 can be described as diversified. Ukraine accounted for 19.2% of exports in kind, Morocco for 13.0%, and Estonia for 12.2%. Together, these three countries represented just 44.4% of total flows, with no single country holding a clearly dominant position.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Russia in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2020 and peaked in 2021, with a two-fold gap between these years. In 2021, the value of exported ammonia from Russia amounted to 1 670 M $ US, indicating a dramatic increase of 98.6% relative to the prior year. The minimum value was recorded in 2020 at 841 M $ US, and the largest decline occurred in 2020, with a drop of 24.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Russia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

The partner structure of ammonia exports in value terms from 2018 to 2021 remained fragmented. Ukraine contributed 18.4% of exports in value terms, Morocco 12.9%, and Estonia 11.6%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for only 42.9% of total flows, with no single country exceeding a dominant share.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Russia in value, 2018-2021

Imports ammonia to Russia

Imports in kind, K t

The market showed signs of volatility over the observed period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2019 and peaked in 2021, varying by 2.2 times between these years. In 2021, Russia imported a total of 0.1 K t of ammonia, representing a 97.0% increase over the past year. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 0.1 K t, and the largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 6.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Russia in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Germany, Ukraine, and France formed the core of ammonia imports in kind to Russia. Germany accounted for 34.3% of imports in kind, Ukraine for 27.5%, and France for 19.8%. Together, these three countries took 81.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Russia in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2021, Russia imported a total of 0.3 M $ US of ammonia, reflecting a sharp gain of 46.0% year-over-year. Between 2018 and 2021, imports increased by 29.1%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 8.9%. The minimum value was recorded in 2020 at 0.2 M $ US, and the largest decline occurred in 2020, with a drop of 13.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Russia in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Throughout 2018 to 2021, Germany, France, and the United States remained the main markets for ammonia imports in value terms to Russia. Germany accounted for 42.3% of imports in value terms, France for 26.7%, and the United States for 11.2%. Jointly, these three countries took 80.2% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Russia in value, 2018-2021