Zambia wins Kenya's 540,000-tonne maize deal as South African surplus stays blocked

South Africa will finish its current maize marketing season with more grain than it can sell at home, while Kenya, one of Africa's biggest maize buyers, is heading into a severe deficit. The two markets are not connecting. According to Ecofin Agency, Kenyan rules on genetically modified grain and a 50% import tariff keep South African maize largely out of the Kenyan market, leaving the business to regional suppliers instead.

The clearest sign of that came in September. On 10 September 2026, Zambia's Food Reserve Agency (FRA) signed an agreement in Lusaka to ship 540,000 tonnes of white maize to Kenya. The volume will be delivered in six lots: the first five of 100,000 tonnes each and a final lot of 40,000 tonnes. The parties did not disclose the value of the contract.

Zambia's surplus finds a buyer

Zambia expects its own maize harvest to approach 5 million tonnes this year after favourable weather conditions. As Africa's second-largest maize producer, it carries sizeable exportable surpluses and has become one of the main sources of white maize for the wider region.

The Kenyan contract gives that surplus a committed destination at scale. Zambia's membership of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) means the maize enters Kenya duty-free, and the crop is white, non-genetically-modified maize — the type Kenyan millers process for human consumption.

Kenya's deficit and the duty-free request

Kenya expects its maize harvest to fall by 40% this year. Drought, insufficient rainfall and irregular precipitation have weighed on yields. The additional imports should ease short-term pressure on supplies and prices, but a significant supply gap remains.

The Cereal Millers Association (CMA) has asked the government to authorise duty-free imports of nearly 3 million tonnes of white maize. The Cabinet Secretary for Agriculture and Livestock Development has yet to rule on the request. The structural picture behind it:

• Annual Kenyan maize demand exceeds 4.5 million tonnes, while domestic output swings with the weather and has persistently fallen short.
• Kenya imported an average of 500,000 tonnes a year between 2021 and 2025, at a cost of 17 billion shillings ($130 million), according to official data.
• That makes Kenya Africa's fourth-largest maize importer, behind Egypt, Algeria and Morocco.

GMO ruling and a 50% tariff

South Africa has the volume to address a large part of that gap. Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo estimates the country could export more than 3 million tonnes of maize in the marketing season ending in April 2027, on top of nearly 1.1 million tonnes already shipped between early May and early September 2026.

Two barriers stand in the way. A Kenyan Court of Appeal ruling in March 2025 suspended the import and commercialisation of genetically modified products pending the examination of an appeal, and about 85% of South African maize is genetically modified. Suppliers can still ship non-GMO maize to Kenya, but they must verify its origin at every stage of the supply chain and meet Kenyan import requirements. Separately, Kenya applies a 50% tariff to South African maize, because South Africa belongs to neither the East African Community (EAC) nor COMESA.

Advantage to regional suppliers

Those conditions favour Kenya's traditional suppliers. Tanzania is an EAC member and Zambia a COMESA member, giving both duty-free access, and both produce white maize without genetically modified varieties. Until Kenya changes its legal framework, Ecofin Agency reports, South African exporters are likely to keep prioritising regional markets including Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia and Mozambique.