Maize market in South Africa

Earlier Report Observations

South Africa's maize market volume grew from 10.9 million tonnes in 2018 to 13.3 million tonnes in 2020. Drought in western areas initially constrained production, but strong global demand, especially from China, supported domestic prices and market activity. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused supply chain disruptions that increased feed price volatility, yet overall production rose, expanding market volume.

Market volume then fell to 11.6 million tonnes by 2022. Flooding in 2021 lowered yields, while high input costs led commercial producers to intend slightly smaller planting areas for the 2022 season. A weakening rand against the US dollar and global factors like drought in South America and the Russia-Ukraine war boosted exports, reducing domestic availability.

Volume recovered to 12.4 million tonnes in 2023. La Niña-induced rains created favorable production conditions, supported by robust tractor sales and relatively high commodity prices. Significant export volumes to destinations such as Mexico and Southern Africa continued, but increased production allowed the domestic market to expand.

Production maize in South Africa

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

South Africa ranked 10th globally in maize production from 2018 to 2021.

Top producers of maize, 2018-2021

World map of production of maize, 2018-2021

South Africa's maize production grew for the second consecutive year. In 2021, the country produced 16,315 K t of maize, a modest increase of 3.0% compared to 2020. Over the period from 2018 to 2021, production rose by 24.5%, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of 7.6%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 11,824 K t, which saw the largest decline of 9.8%. In contrast, the largest increase occurred in 2020, with a jump of 34.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

South Africa's maize production value increased for the third year in a row. In 2021, the output was valued at 3,967 M US dollars, marking a year-on-year rise of 14.2%. From 2018 to 2021, production value grew by 47.3%, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports maize from South Africa

Exports in kind, K t

The market showed significant fluctuations during this period. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 1,181 K t, while the highest was in 2021 at 3,326 K t, resulting in a peak-to-trough ratio of 2.8 times. In 2021, maize exports from South Africa amounted to 3,326 K t, representing a sharp increase of 28.7% compared to 2020. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 46.4%, whereas the largest increase was in 2020, surging by 118.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, the export market in kind was diverse, with Japan (12.2% of exports in kind), Vietnam (11.9%), and Botswana (11.2%) together accounting for only 35.3% of total flows. The remaining 64.7% was distributed among numerous other countries.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

The market displayed an unstable trend over this timeframe. The lowest export value was in 2019 at 280.4 M US dollars, while the highest was in 2021 at 808.6 M US dollars, creating a top-to-bottom ratio of 2.9 times. In 2021, South Africa exported 808.6 M US dollars worth of maize, a strong increase of 42.8% compared to the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, falling by 38.0%, and the largest increase occurred in 2020, rising by 102.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the distribution of export values remained scattered. Japan (11.7% of exports in value terms), Vietnam (10.9%), and Zimbabwe (10.6%) collectively made up just 33.2% of total flows, with no single partner emerging as clearly dominant.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021

Imports maize to South Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Volatility defined the market behavior in these years. The lowest import volume was in 2018, while the highest was in 2019 at 590 K t, with a difference of 68 times between these two years. In 2021, maize imports into South Africa stood at 20 K t, reflecting a significant decrease of 75.5% compared to the prior year. The largest decline occurred in 2020, dropping by 86.1%, and the largest increase was in 2019, soaring by 6,661.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Argentina was the dominant supplier of maize to South Africa, accounting for 79.7% of total imports in kind, while other countries shared the remaining volume.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout this period. The lowest import value was in 2021 at 30.9 M US dollars, while the highest was in 2019 at 131.3 M US dollars, resulting in a gap of 4.2 times. In 2021, South Africa imported 30.9 M US dollars worth of maize, showing a strong contraction of 14.3% over the past year. The largest decline was recorded in 2020, falling by 72.5%, and the largest increase occurred in 2019, rising by 199.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the leading sources for maize imports in value terms to South Africa were Argentina (40.2% of imports in value terms), the United States (24.7%), and Chile (22.5%), which together accounted for 87.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021