Vietnam fragrant paddy prices ease as Philippine crop forecast points to stronger import demand

Fragrant paddy prices edge lower

Prices for selected fragrant paddy varieties in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta declined modestly on September 21, according to Vietnambiz. Fresh Dai Thom 8 paddy fell by 100 dong per kilogram from the previous day to 6,000-6,100 dong per kilogram, while fresh OM 18 dropped by the same amount to 5,900-6,000 dong per kilogram.

Other paddy varieties were broadly stable. Fresh OM 5451 traded at 5,900-6,000 dong per kilogram, IR 50404 at 5,800-6,000 dong and OM 34 at 5,700-5,800 dong. The quotations were based on updates from the An Giang provincial Department of Agriculture and Environment.

In the processing market, CL 555 raw rice declined by 50 dong per kilogram to 8,650-8,700 dong. IR 504 raw rice remained at 8,700-8,750 dong, while broken rice was unchanged at 8,500-8,600 dong and rice bran stood at 7,300-7,650 dong per kilogram. The limited movements suggest that the decline remained concentrated in a few products rather than spreading across the domestic market.

Vietnamese export quotations remain stable

Vietnam’s export rice prices showed no significant change. The Vietnam Food Association placed Jasmine rice at $526-$530 per tonne, 5% broken fragrant rice at $440-$445 and 5% broken white rice at $423-$427 per tonne.

Among major exporters, Thailand’s 5% broken white rice remained the most expensive of the listed origins at $477-$481 per tonne. Comparable Pakistani rice was quoted at $419-$423, while Indian 5% broken white rice stood at $375-$379 and Indian 5% broken parboiled rice at $377-$381 per tonne. Vietnam therefore retained a premium over Pakistan and India in white rice, although its quotation remained below Thailand’s.

Philippine harvest area set to contract

The Philippines Statistics Authority expects the country’s unmilled rice, or palay, production to fall to 3.19 million tonnes in the third quarter of 2026, Manila Bulletin reported. The estimate, based on information available as of August 1, is 15% below the 3.75 million tonnes harvested in the same period last year and 2.2% below the authority’s initial forecast of 3.26 million tonnes. If realized, it would be the lowest third-quarter output since 2019, when production reached 3.05 million tonnes.

The contraction reflects a sharp reduction in harvested area rather than weaker yields. The authority forecasts an area of 771,790 hectares, nearly 16% below the 916,770 hectares harvested a year earlier. Average yield is nevertheless expected to rise by 1%, from 4.09 to 4.13 tonnes per hectare. By August 1, farmers had harvested 113,790 hectares, or 14.7% of the expected area, producing an estimated 455,250 tonnes. Of the 1.58 million hectares farmers intended to plant during July-September 2026, 892,320 hectares, or 56.4%, had actually been planted.

Imports could reach a record

Philippine domestic rice production is forecast to fall by about 700,000 tonnes this year amid the risk of an extreme El Niño event late in the year. The country is increasing overseas purchases to cover the expected shortfall, with annual rice imports forecast at a record of about 5 million tonnes. Data from the Philippine Bureau of Plant Industry showed imports at 3.67 million tonnes through the end of August, nearly 25% above the 2.95 million tonnes recorded during the same period last year.

The Philippine outlook may provide demand support for regional suppliers, including Vietnam, even as Vietnamese paddy prices soften at the farm and processing levels. The scale and timing of additional buying will be important for exporters because Vietnam’s white-rice prices currently sit between higher Thai quotations and cheaper Indian offers. The Philippines Statistics Authority also expects third-quarter corn production to fall by more than 14% year on year, from 2.43 million to 2.08 million tonnes, adding pressure to the country’s broader grain balance.