US wine exports to Canada fall 78% as California absorbs the hit

American wine remains largely shut out of Canada roughly a year and a half after the tariff dispute between Washington and Ottawa began, and California wineries are carrying most of the loss, Spectrum News reported from Sacramento. With the exception of Alberta and Saskatchewan, U.S. alcohol — wine included — has not returned to Canadian store shelves.

According to the Wine Institute, U.S. wine exports to Canada fell 78% in a single year, from about $460 million in 2024 to $103 million in 2025. California accounts for more than 95% of all U.S. wine exports, which concentrates the shortfall in one state. Canada was the largest importer of U.S. wine before trade relations began to break down, according to state agriculture department data cited by Spectrum News.

• U.S. wine exports to Canada: about $460 million in 2024, $103 million in 2025
• Year-on-year decline: 78%
• California share of U.S. wine exports: more than 95%
• Provinces that have relisted U.S. wine: Alberta and Saskatchewan

Only two provinces have restored listings

“Sadly, all American products, alcohol, wine included, is still removed from the shelves, with the exception of Alberta and Saskatchewan,” said Joan Kautz of Kautz Wine. “And those two provinces have allowed wine, you know, California, U.S. wines and products to go back onto the shelves. But those are pretty saturated markets now.” The reopening of two provincial markets therefore offers limited relief: the available shelf space there is already committed.

Kautz Wine exports roughly 150,000 cases a year, and Canada has been an important destination for that volume, particularly for higher-priced bottles. The winery has been examining alternative export markets in Africa and Eastern Europe, but Kautz described Canada as irreplaceable in the near term. “You can’t replace Canada. I mean that’s 30 years of market work and relationships that we’ve built there. It will come back. It may take a while,” she said.

No sign of a thaw in Washington

There is currently no indication that trade relations are improving, Spectrum News reported, pointing to President Donald Trump’s most recent comments on Canada. “They have been one of the worst countries in the entire world,” the President said. “You know, we get along with China, we get along with people, and we make good deals. But Canada’s been really very difficult to deal with, actually.”

Wine is not the only U.S. export category losing ground in the Canadian market. The White House says U.S. vehicle exports to Canada fell about 22% from April 2025 through March 2026, compared with the same period a year earlier. For exporters, that pairing — a 78% drop in wine and a 22% drop in vehicles — indicates a broad contraction in Canadian demand for U.S. goods rather than a problem confined to the beverage alcohol trade.

Why a reopening would not restore 2024 volumes

Relationships can be mended, but that does not mean they return to their previous state, said UC Davis economist Ina Simonovska. “We are also seeing some signs of Canada doing what is natural for Canada to do, which is friend shoring, right,” she said. “Trying to establish new relationships with other partners will make things more difficult for the United States.” Supply agreements signed with alternative origins during the dispute do not lapse when tariffs are lifted.

Stuart Spencer of the Lodi Wine Commission said California producers would face difficulties even under a full reopening. “It’s not going to return to what it was,” Spencer said. “You know, I think there’s been damage to the US brand up there that’s going to have a lasting impact. Two, the longer this drags on, you know, you are getting displaced by other products and you just don’t flip a switch and then kick those products out.” Kautz said she intends to stay consistent with the winery’s Canadian partners and that Canada will remain an important market even if conditions do not return to what they were.