US sunflower output projected to more than double as prices rise

USDA projects a sharp production recovery

US sunflower production is projected to recover to 2.3 billion pounds, more than double the volume produced in 2024-25, according to USDA figures reported by Farm Progress. The increase marks a substantial turnaround in the availability of domestically grown sunflower seed and gives processors a much larger potential supply base for the 2025-26 marketing period.

The projection changes the operating environment for growers, crushers and buyers after the smaller 2024-25 crop. More seed can support higher processing volumes and improve access to raw material, although the commercial effect will depend on how much of the projected crop reaches the market and how processors respond to stronger prices. The available source material does not provide a regional production breakdown or separate the expected contribution of different sunflower varieties.

Crush estimate moves higher

USDA also raised its estimate for the 2025-26 sunflower crush, Farm Progress reported. The revision is consistent with the larger crop projection: an expanded seed supply gives crushing plants more scope to increase throughput and produce sunflower oil and meal. The reported source text does not provide a complete, verifiable figure for the revised crush estimate, so no numerical value is stated here.

A higher crush would direct a larger share of the crop into domestic processing rather than leaving the full increase available for other uses. For crushers, greater seed availability can improve plant utilization and procurement flexibility. Growers may gain a broader outlet for their crop, while oil and meal buyers could see improved product availability. The balance between seed prices, processing costs and the value of oil and meal will determine how much of the additional production is economically attractive to crush.

Prices strengthen alongside supply

The production rebound is occurring as sunflower prices rise, according to Farm Progress. That combination is notable because a larger projected crop would normally increase supply pressure. Stronger prices alongside a crop of 2.3 billion pounds indicate that processors and other buyers are competing for the recovery in output, or that demand expectations remain firm enough to absorb more seed. The source material does not provide a price level, percentage change or benchmark, limiting any assessment of the size and duration of the increase.

For producers, higher prices combined with more output improve the revenue outlook compared with a situation in which the crop recovers but prices fall sharply. For processors, however, more expensive seed can narrow crushing margins unless sunflower oil and meal values rise sufficiently. Market participants will therefore watch whether USDA makes further changes to production and crush expectations, and whether the price increase persists as the larger supply becomes available. The central market question is no longer production recovery alone, but how quickly US crushing demand can absorb it without weakening processor economics.