Ukrainian and world grain prices diverge as Ukraine loses ground in the EU market
Feed wheat in Ukraine gained about 950 UAH per tonne this week while milling wheat, corn and sunflower seed fell, according to AgroTender data. Wheat and corn declined on both Chicago and Euronext. Cargo handling at the Greater Odesa ports has fallen more than 15-fold since 22 July, and the United States has overtaken Ukraine in corn exports to the European Union.
Ukraine's grain market moved in two directions this week: feed wheat rose sharply while milling wheat, corn and sunflower seed all lost value. The price data comes from AgroTender and was reported by ua.news. On international exchanges the picture was more uniform, with wheat and corn falling in both Chicago and Paris.
Glavcom, which compared Ukrainian purchase prices with the previous week and tracked quotations on the Chicago Board of Trade and Euronext, reported the same split between the domestic and world markets. Within Ukraine, prices for grain and sunflower seed continue to vary by region, delivery terms and point of sale.
Feed wheat rallies, southern corn slides
Feed wheat was the clear gainer of the week. Its average purchase price across three regions rose by roughly 950 UAH per tonne, or about 16%, according to AgroTender. The increase was concentrated in the south and at the ports, where feed wheat added close to 2,000 UAH per tonne. Central and northern regions also moved higher, while western Ukraine finished near the previous week's level.
Milling wheat went the other way, losing about 300 UAH per tonne on average. The decline came from central, northern and western regions, while at the ports milling wheat edged slightly higher.
Corn fell by roughly 750 UAH per tonne on average. The sharpest drop was recorded in the south, at around 2,600 UAH per tonne. Central and northern regions bucked the trend with higher corn prices, while the west slipped marginally.
Sunflower seed extended its decline, down about 250 UAH per tonne, or 1.3%, on average. Most regions saw lower prices, with the ports the exception at a small gain.
Chicago and Paris both retreat
On the Chicago Board of Trade, milling wheat fell by $11 per tonne to $269, and corn lost $4 to settle at $209 per tonne, ua.news reported. On Euronext in Paris, wheat dropped $7 to $282 per tonne and corn fell $6 to $305 per tonne.
European quotations therefore remain above American ones. The gap stands at $13 per tonne for wheat and $96 per tonne for corn, a premium that matters for any exporter able to place cargo inside the European Union.
Port attacks cut Odesa throughput
Shelling of port infrastructure and expensive logistics are costing Ukraine its position in the EU, according to Glavcom, with competitors moving quickly into the space it vacates. After 22 July, cargo handling at the Greater Odesa ports fell more than 15-fold. Ukrainian grain is being moved by alternative routes instead, by rail, by road and via the Danube, but these cannot replace seaborne shipping in volume terms.
American producers are using the opening. At the start of the new marketing year the United States overtook Ukraine in corn exports to the European Union, which Glavcom describes as a direct loss of market share for Ukraine. Asian importers, meanwhile, have stepped up purchases of wheat from Australia and Argentina because of delivery delays from the Black Sea region.
The commercial stakes in Europe are rising at the same time. Because of drought and reduced harvests, the EU may increase corn imports from 19.3 million to 25 million tonnes in the new marketing year. Ukraine could in principle raise supplies to meet that demand, but attacks on port infrastructure are preventing it.
The weekly declines in Chicago and Paris follow a much stronger move higher. In August, world prices for major agricultural commodities posted their steepest monthly increase in more than 14 years, driven among other factors by supply disruptions linked to wars and extreme weather.
